Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – October 5, 2025 (12:00 ET)

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) traded in a tight range for most of the session before forming a bullish breakout above prior highs.
• Momentum surged mid-day with RSI reaching overbought levels, suggesting a potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the morning session, with Bollinger Bands widening to signal increasing market activity.
• Volume spiked during the breakout, confirming the move higher and aligning with price action.
• A key support level formed around 0.2590, now acting as a critical area to watch for a potential rebound or breakdown.

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.2571 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2645 on October 5 at the same time, with a high of 0.2682 and a low of 0.2571. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 19,829,772.8, with a notional turnover of $5,243,288.24. Price formed a strong bullish breakout late in the day, supported by increasing volume and a breakout above the prior day’s high.

Structure and candlestick formations revealed a key support at 0.2590 and resistance at 0.2617, where a large bullish engulfing pattern emerged after a tight consolidation period. A doji formed near the low at 0.2590, signaling indecision and a potential reversal. The breakout above 0.2617 was confirmed by a strong candle with above-average volume and a bullish continuation pattern, indicating that buyers are in control.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart converged above the price, reinforcing the bullish bias, while the 50-period daily MA sat slightly below the closing price at 0.2633, suggesting short-term strength. Bollinger Bands expanded in the morning and then began to contract toward the end of the day, indicating a potential slowdown in momentum. Price remained above the 20-period MA for most of the day, a sign of continued momentum.

The RSI crossed into overbought territory at 72, suggesting a possible pullback. MACD was positive and trending upward, confirming the bullish momentum. However, with RSI near overbought levels, a retracement into the 0.2610–0.2590 range could be expected. Volume surged during the morning hours and again at the breakout, aligning with price action. The increase in turnover and volume was consistent with the bullish move, indicating strong conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing showed the 61.8% level at 0.2628 and the 78.6% at 0.2643, both of which were respected during the move higher. On the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.2620 was recently tested and held, supporting the view that 0.2645 could be a valid target in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 0.2617 level with a stop loss placed just below the doji at 0.2590. This would capitalize on the confirmed breakout pattern and the alignment of volume and price action. The strategy could be further refined by adding a trailing stop once the RSI pulls back from overbought territory. Given the current price action, this setup could be tested over the next 48 hours to assess its effectiveness in a live market environment.