Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis (10/02–10/03)

• TREEUSDT opened at 0.2615 and reached a high of 0.272 before closing at 0.2669, indicating mixed sentiment and volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2639–0.2666, suggesting short-term strength amid a wider consolidation phase.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 0.2715–0.2712, followed by a pullback, hinting at potential exhaustion in the upward move.
• Volume spiked at 617,062.0 during the 4:00–4:15 AM ET candle, coinciding with a sharp price drop to 0.2662.
• Price remained above the 20-period SMA, but the 50-period SMA acted as a resistance zone, limiting upward momentum.

Market Overview

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.2615 on 2025-10-02 and closed at 0.2669 on 2025-10-03, with a high of 0.272 and a low of 0.2615. The 24-hour total volume was 16,308,186.8 and notional turnover amounted to $4,315,453.10 (calculated using 15-minute OHLCV data). The pair showed a choppy intraday pattern, marked by a strong early rally followed by a late-day consolidation and a sharp pullback in early ET morning.

Structure & Formations

A key bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 19:15–19:30 ET (0.2698–0.2715), signaling potential short-term strength. However, a large bearish candle in the early morning (4:00–4:15 ET) at 0.2678–0.2662 showed increased selling pressure. A doji formed at 0.2684 on 03:00 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels appear to be forming around 0.266–0.2665, while resistance remains near 0.2705–0.271.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA at 0.268–0.2685 in the early morning, offering a bullish crossover. However, the 50-period SMA (0.2675–0.268) became a resistance barrier during the later hours. The daily 50 and 100-period SMAs appear to have aligned just below 0.270, suggesting a critical area for potential breakdown or confirmation of a trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory at 0.268–0.269, confirming initial momentum, but diverged from price after 19:30 ET as price pushed higher while momentum weakened. RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) at 0.2715–0.2712, then dropped into neutral territory by 04:00 ET, suggesting the rally had run out of steam. A bearish divergence emerged after the 4:00 ET candle, aligning with the sharp price drop.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the late-day rally, reaching as high as 0.2715, and then contracted significantly during the morning pullback. Price closed the day near the lower band, indicating bearish bias and potential for a continuation of the consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 4:00–4:15 ET candle, reaching 617,062.0 in volume traded, while turnover spiked to $163,863.60. This divergence between price and volume suggests a potential loss of conviction in the bearish move. On the other hand, the 19:15–19:30 ET candle had a strong volume of 117,736.8, supporting the bullish engulfing pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent 0.2615–0.2715 swing show 0.266 (38.2%) and 0.2634 (61.8%) as critical levels. Price found support at 0.266–0.2665, suggesting a possible rebound from the 38.2% level. If the 0.2634 level is tested, it may serve as a stronger barrier.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be triggered by the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern followed by a confirmed MACD crossover above zero. The pattern was seen at 19:15–19:30 ET (0.2698–0.2715), followed by a positive MACD divergence at 0.268–0.269. If the 0.2705–0.271 level can be held with increased volume and RSI above 60, it may serve as a valid entry point. A stop-loss could be placed below 0.2665, and a target could be set at 0.2725–0.274, based on Fibonacci extensions and prior resistance levels.