Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-11-09

• Price surged to 0.1571 before retracing to close at 0.1503
• Volume spiked in the early morning ET as price dipped sharply
• RSI and MACD suggest fading momentum with a potential reversal risk
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the sharp selloff, signaling increased volatility
• Fibonacci retracement levels show 0.1495 and 0.1522 as key pivots

Opening Narrative

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.1512 on 2025-11-08 at 17:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1571, and closed at 0.1503 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,160,464.3, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $175,644. Price action shows a bearish reversal pattern amid increasing volatility and diverging momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern following a sharp rise into the early morning, followed by a large red candle on 00:00–00:15 ET that consumed the prior rally. This pattern suggests a short-term top may have been established. A strong support level appears at 0.1495, aligning with both Fibonacci retracement and a recent swing low. The 0.1522 level acts as a key resistance-turned-support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have diverged, with the 50 SMA dipping below the 20 SMA, indicating a bearish crossover. The 50-period and 200-period SMAs on the daily chart also show bearish alignment, reinforcing the potential for a deeper pullback toward 0.1468–0.1476.

Momentum & Volatility

RSI moved from overbought territory (above 60) to oversold (below 30), suggesting exhaustion in the upward move. MACD crossed below the signal line in the late morning, confirming a shift in momentum. Bollinger Bands constricted before the selloff, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

The latest 15-minute upswing from 0.1531 to 0.1571 retraced to 0.1547 at the 38.2% level and further to 0.1522 at the 61.8% level. The 0.1495 level marks the 61.8% retracement of a larger daily move from 0.1468 to 0.1560. These levels may serve as potential pivots or reversal signals in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly during the early morning selloff, particularly on the candle that closed at 0.1495. Notional turnover reached a 24-hour high during this period, supporting the price movement. However, volume has weakened in the afternoon, raising questions about the sustainability of the move lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described leverages the CDL_ENGULFING_BULLISH candlestick pattern as a trade entry trigger. This aligns with the recent bearish engulfing formation observed in the TREEUSDT chart. The methodology assumes a strict 1-day holding period with no additional stop-loss or take-profit parameters, which could be a useful framework for testing short-term momentum shifts. Given the current bearish bias and diverging momentum, such a strategy would need to be adjusted for bearish setups or integrated with a complementary bearish pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing or bearish harami) to remain effective in the present context.