Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-09-23

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) closed 1.3% lower at 0.286, below the 24-hour high of 0.2917 but above the low of 0.2776.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and volume confirmed weakness as price declined below key 0.285 support into the night.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session, with a 3.5% drop between 00:15–03:15 ET on elevated turnover.
• The 20-period 15-min MA crossed bearish, while the 200-day MA remains a key hurdle at ~0.285–0.286.
• A double-bottom formation at 0.2737–0.2776 suggests potential support, but without a bullish confirmation, it could fail.

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at 0.2874 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2917 and a low of 0.2776, and closed at 0.286 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total volume amounted to 47,622,508.3, and notional turnover stood at $12,993,594.00. The price action reflected a bearish bias, with a key breakdown below the 0.285 level during the overnight session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish shift overnight, with a sharp drop from 0.2917 to 0.2776 over a 3-hour window, forming a broad double-bottom pattern. A significant bearish engulfing candle appeared on 2025-0923 00:1500, confirming the breakdown of 0.285. A doji formed at 0.286 on 2025-0923 12:0000, suggesting indecision at the current level. Key resistances appear at 0.288–0.290, while critical support levels are now 0.284 (post-doji) and 0.281 (next Fibonacci level down).

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period 15-minute moving averages crossed bearish into the session, indicating short-term weakness. The 200-day MA is currently at ~0.285–0.286, acting as a dynamic resistance. Price remains below all three moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the 50-period MA is expected in the near term, which may determine the next directional move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative overnight and continues to slope downward, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has dipped into the 45–48 range and is showing signs of oversold conditions. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI during the overnight decline indicates that selling pressure may not have exhausted yet. A bullish reversal would need RSI to close above 50 on a confirmation candle.

Bollinger Bands have widened during the overnight drop, indicating increased volatility. Price is currently trading near the lower band at 0.281–0.284, suggesting the possibility of a bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend depending on whether the double-bottom pattern is confirmed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight bearish leg, particularly between 00:15 and 03:15 ET, with the 00:1500 candle alone accounting for 389,542.4 volume. Turnover spiked during the same period, aligning with the price drop. A divergence appeared later in the morning when volume declined despite continued downward pressure, which may hint at waning bearish conviction. However, the initial divergence remains a more reliable signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 0.2776–0.2917 swing suggest 0.284 (38.2%) as a potential support level. A retest of 0.281 (61.8%) is also in play. On the daily chart, key levels from prior moves include 0.286 (200-day MA), 0.288 (61.8%), and 0.291 (resistance). The 0.2776 low may act as a final support if the trend continues downward.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a bearish breakout below the 0.285 level with a stop above 0.288 and a target at 0.281–0.2776. The strategy could be combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation for filtering. Given the recent volatility and the formation of a double-bottom, a long entry on a bullish reversal at 0.284 with a stop below 0.281 may also offer a high-risk/reward opportunity. Both strategies would benefit from a time-based exit after 2–3 days to manage drawdown risks.