Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-09-20

• Price surged over 30% in 24 hours, closing at $0.3359 after breaking above a key resistance level.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the late morning (ET), confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD show strong positive divergence, suggesting continued upward pressure.
• Price remains within the upper Bollinger Band, signaling high volatility and consolidation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels confirm key resistance at $0.3365–$0.3410 for near-term action.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at $0.3162, reached a high of $0.3410, a low of $0.3085, and closed at $0.3359. The 24-hour volume was 21,371,311.2 and turnover reached $7,177,252.60, reflecting strong accumulation and bullish conviction.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick data reveals a powerful upward reversal from a bearish trend overnight, forming a bullish “engulfing” pattern as price surged past a key resistance around $0.3200. A notable 15-minute doji at $0.3116 signaled indecision, but was quickly followed by a strong continuation higher. Key support levels formed at $0.3100–$0.3150, while recent resistance includes $0.3200, $0.3250, and $0.3300. Price now appears to be consolidating above $0.3350, with a critical resistance zone forming at $0.3365–$0.3410.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA show price trending above both, with a steep positive angle indicating strong momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA appear to be converging around $0.3250, now acting as a critical support. Price is currently above all three, suggesting a strong bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line has crossed above the signal line with strong positive divergence, indicating growing bullish momentum. RSI remains above 60 for most of the day, with a brief dip into overbought territory (above 70) at $0.3410 suggesting potential consolidation. However, the divergence between RSI and price action implies that strength may continue into the next 24-hour window.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent a significant portion of the 24-hour period at or above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating high volatility and strong conviction in the bullish trend. The bands have also expanded significantly from a contraction phase earlier in the day, confirming renewed momentum and breakout conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours of the morning (ET), especially during the 05:45–06:00 ET timeframe, with a large 15-minute candle reaching $0.3250 on 2.5 million volume. Turnover also spiked during this period, confirming price action and signaling accumulation. A divergence in the later afternoon (ET), where volume dipped slightly despite a continued rise in price, may hint at a temporary pause in the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $0.3100 to $0.3410, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $0.3306, and the 78.6% level at $0.3394—both have held as support/resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger bearish swing from $0.3250 to $0.3085 is at $0.3185, now acting as a critical support if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy relies on detecting a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a 20-period EMA crossover above the 50-period EMA, with confirmation from RSI above 55 and volume expanding by at least 1.5x the 4-hour average. This setup aligns with today’s price action at $0.3250–$0.3300, where the combination of pattern, volume, and momentum indicators provided a high-probability entry. A backtest on this strategy would likely show favorable win rates in ranging markets with clear breakouts, particularly when applied to smaller-cap altcoins with lower liquidity and higher volatility.