Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) declined by -3.08% over the past 24 hours, closing at 0.3162
• Volatility remained elevated, with a 24-hour range of 0.3266 to 0.3124
• On-balance volume spiked in the early morning hours, coinciding with a sharp drop
• RSI entered oversold territory during the session, suggesting short-term potential for a bounce
• Bollinger Bands widened mid-session, reflecting increased market uncertainty

The Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) pair opened at 0.3215 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3162 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 0.3266 and a low of 0.3124. Over the past 24 hours, the total volume traded reached 19,039,524.4 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $6.02 million. The price action saw a distinct bearish bias, with a sharp correction forming after mid-session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish momentum, particularly in the hours between 2025-09-19 02:00 and 05:00 ET, where a large bearish engulfing pattern formed. This was followed by a series of lower closes, confirming a key short-term support level at 0.3124–0.3129. A doji appeared near 0.3127, indicating indecision before a small recovery began. The formation suggests that 0.3124 may serve as a strong support area, and a breakdown could extend the move toward 0.3090–0.3095.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both positioned above the current price, suggesting continued bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA earlier in the week, reinforcing a bearish trend. The 100-period MA now acts as a potential resistance level around 0.3180–0.3185. If the price manages to close above this level for two consecutive days, a reversal could be signaled.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bearish divergence early in the session, with the histogram contracting as the price continued lower. This was followed by a slight positive twist in the late hours of the session, indicating a potential short-term recovery. RSI reached oversold conditions below 30 during the morning hours, reaching a low of 27.3 at 03:45 ET, which could suggest a bounce is due if volume confirms a reversal. However, RSI has yet to show a strong bullish crossover, indicating caution for longs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp correction in the early morning, with the price dropping below the lower band for several hours. This widening of the bands indicates increased volatility. The current price of 0.3162 is now sitting just above the lower band, suggesting that volatility has subsided and the market may be consolidating. A retest of the upper band near 0.3180–0.3185 could trigger a short-term reversal if bullish volume follows.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning hours, particularly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline in price. This volume confirmed the bearish move and was followed by a smaller rebound in the afternoon. However, the volume on the rebound was relatively weak, suggesting limited conviction. Turnover diverged slightly from price at 05:00–07:00 ET, with lower turnover despite a rebound in price, signaling a potential lack of buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.3266 to 0.3124), the 61.8% level currently sits at 0.3166, very close to the current price. If this level holds, a bounce toward 0.3180–0.3185 is likely. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.3185, which aligns with the 100-period MA. A break below 0.3124 would take the price toward the 78.6% level at 0.3087.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions when RSI drops below 30, confirming with a bullish candlestick pattern, and setting a stop-loss below the previous low. Over the past 24 hours, this condition was met at 03:45 ET when RSI reached 27.3 and a small doji formed at 0.3127. A long entry here with a stop at 0.3124 would have captured the subsequent rebound to 0.3166. This approach relies on oversold RSI and reversal patterns to capture short-term bounces in volatile markets, aligning with the observed price and volume behavior in this dataset.