Market Overview for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC)

Summary
• Treasure/Bitcoin traded in a narrow range with a slight bearish bias.
• High volatility periods occurred in the early hours of the 24-hour window.
• Volume remained mixed with no definitive momentum seen in RSI or MACD.

Market Snapshot

Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) opened at 1.10e-06 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session reached a high of 1.12e-06 and a low of 1.03e-06 before closing at 1.09e-06 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 393,278.8, and notional turnover (amount) was 928.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candles show a series of indecisive price consolidations around the 1.09e-06 to 1.10e-06 range, with a few sharp pullbacks, particularly between 20:30 and 22:45 ET. A small bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 20:30 ET bar (1.08e-06 to 1.03e-06), hinting at bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 23:45 ET, indicating a potential exhaustion of selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained below the 20-period (20SMA) and 50-period (50SMA) moving averages, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not available for the dataset, but recent behavior indicates price is consolidating just below the 50DMA level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been mostly negative throughout the 24 hours, with a brief positive divergence around 22:45 ET. The RSI remains below 50 for most of the day, pointing to weak bullish momentum. A minor oversold condition was seen in the 02:30–04:00 ET timeframe, but no significant bounce occurred.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively wide during the early session, particularly from 19:00 to 21:00 ET, but later narrowed between 04:00 and 09:00 ET. Price spent the majority of the day near the lower Bollinger band, indicating bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked significantly between 20:30 and 21:45 ET (approximately 66,000 units traded in a single 15-minute candle), but price failed to follow through on the breakout attempt. The largest single notional turnover was 1.10e-06 at 22:45 ET, which coincided with a bearish reversal candle.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.03e-06 to 1.12e-06 swing on the 15-minute chart, the 1.09e-06 level aligns with the 61.8% retracement, acting as a temporary consolidation zone. On the daily timeframe, the same level is close to the 50% retracement of the previous 24-hour range.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the predictive value of the bearish engulfing pattern observed on the 20:30 ET candle, a backtest could be run using daily candlesticks of MAGICBTC. The strategy would involve scanning for bearish engulfing patterns and measuring the P/L of a short position opened at the next day’s open and closed at the close. This approach aligns with the bearish bias seen in the 15-minute chart and could help quantify the likelihood of a follow-through sell-off.