Market Overview for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC)

• Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) declined 15.6% over 24 hours, closing below key support at 1.35e-06.
• Volatility surged post-18:00 ET with a 4.6% intraday drop as volume spiked to 39,293.8.
• RSI (15-min) likely oversold, near 20–30 range, hinting at potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Band contraction pre-04:00 ET suggests reduced volatility ahead of a breakout.
• Heavy selling pressure persisted into early morning, with negative divergence in volume and price.

The 24-hour period for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) saw a bearish trend, opening at 1.37e-06 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closing at 1.29e-06 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. The high was 1.41e-06, and the low was 1.24e-06, representing a 15.6% decline. Total volume amounted to 413,406.0, and turnover reached 528.4, with a clear bearish bias emerging from late evening into the early morning session.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.39e-06 to 1.32e-06 during the 04:45–05:00 ET period, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level at 1.35e-06 was broken with conviction, followed by a breakdown to 1.32e-06 and further into 1.29e-06. A potential short-term base may form near 1.29e-06 if buyers defend the level and volume subsides.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both dipped below price during the downward leg, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA (a “death cross”), suggesting ongoing bearish pressure and potential for further downside in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line early in the downward leg, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI (15-min) dropped sharply to a range near 20–30 during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, indicating oversold conditions. While this may hint at a potential rebound, confirmation is needed above 1.32e-06 to suggest a shift in trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:30–06:45 ET period as price broke down below the lower Bollinger Band, confirming a breakout to the downside. This was followed by a period of consolidation near the lower band, suggesting exhaustion in the selling pressure. A retest of the 1.32e-06–1.35e-06 range is likely as the next key test for bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 39,293.8 during the 06:30–06:45 ET session, coinciding with a sharp price drop to 1.25e-06 and the 1.24e-06 low. This high-volume breakdown suggests conviction in the bearish move. Turnover also peaked during this window, aligning with price action and confirming the bearish narrative. However, volume has since decreased, indicating possible short-term consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.32e-06 during the 05:15–05:30 ET window, before breaking through to lower levels. The 78.6% level lies near 1.27e-06 and may act as a target or temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is near 1.27e-06, consistent with the 15-minute structure and offering a key area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described aims to leverage the 14-period RSI for signal generation, particularly in identifying oversold conditions (RSI < 30) and entering long positions on a 1-day-hold basis. Given the recent oversold RSI readings and the potential for a rebound from key support levels, this approach could align with the current price structure. However, the bearish bias and volume divergence in recent sessions suggest that RSI-based signals may require tighter risk management or confirmation from price action before entry. Once the correct ticker format is provided (e.g., BINANCE:MAGICBTC), the backtest can be executed from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 to validate the strategy’s historical performance.