Market Overview for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) - 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price action shows bearish bias with a 7.3% decline from open to close.
• Momentum weakens, with RSI nearing oversold territory but lacking confirmation.
• Volume distribution skewed toward early morning, with minimal turnover in the final 6 hours.

MAGICBTC opened at 1.42e-06 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.27e-06 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. The 24-hour range extended between a high of 1.48e-06 and a low of 1.24e-06. Total traded volume was 743,794.2 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $968,795 (assuming $30,000 for BTC).

The price structure reflects a key bearish formation. A long bearish shadow appears in the early morning (0245–0300 ET), followed by a series of lower closes with minimal bullish retracements. The 1.32e-06 level appears to act as immediate support, while resistance remains capped at 1.38e-06. A Bearish Engulfing pattern is evident at 1730–1800 ET on 2025-11-08, further reinforcing the bearish tone.

MAGICBTC remains below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with the 20 MA at 1.4e-06 and the 50 MA at 1.41e-06. This widening divergence suggests increasing bearish pressure. The MACD histogram shows negative momentum, while the RSI dipped into oversold territory during the overnight sell-off, though it has failed to rebound meaningfully.

Bollinger Bands show increased volatility, with a band width expansion from 1.35e-06 to 1.43e-06. Price remains below the lower band for most of the session, indicating strong bearish dominance. Volume is concentrated between 1700 ET on 2025-11-08 and 0030 ET on 2025-11-09, with minimal trading in the final 6 hours of the 24-hour window. This suggests potential exhaustion and limited follow-through from short sellers.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3e-06 appears to have been tested and rejected in the afternoon (1345–1400 ET). A 38.2% retracement level of 1.35e-06 may serve as a near-term pivot, but with RSI weak and volume thin, a continuation lower to 1.24e-06 seems plausible. Traders should watch for a break below 1.27e-06 to confirm the next leg down.

In the Backtest Hypothesis section, we consider the potential of a strategy based on the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Given the bearish confirmation seen in the 1730–1800 ET 15-minute candle on 2025-11-08, a backtest could be structured to validate whether a short position initiated at the close of that candle would yield a profit over a five-day holding period. This strategy would require historical data of all Bearish Engulfing signals on MAGICBTC since 2022-01-01, including both entry and exit prices, to assess average returns, win rate, and drawdowns.