Market Overview for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) - 2025-10-11

• Price plunged 20% after a sharp sell-off in the 21:30–22:00 ET timeframe, breaking key support levels.
• Volume spiked to $167,821 during the sell-off, while price later consolidated within a range of 1.05e-06–1.08e-06.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions after the fall, but a strong follow-through buying signal failed to emerge.
• Bollinger Bands show reduced volatility in the last 12 hours, indicating potential for a breakout.

MAGICBTC opened at 1.37e-06 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 1.38e-06 and a low of 4.2e-07 before closing at 1.07e-06 on October 11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 987,267.2, with a notional turnover of $106,524. The pair experienced a dramatic price correction late in the previous day, followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a sharp bearish reversal pattern during the 21:30–21:45 ET window, breaking key support at 1.35e-06 and falling rapidly to 5.5e-07. This was followed by a long-range bearish bar at 21:45 ET, confirming the breakdown. Later, price found support at 1.05e-06–1.08e-06, where it formed a narrow consolidation pattern with a few small bullish and bearish candles, suggesting short-term equilibrium may be developing.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly during the sell-off, indicating worsening short-term momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 100DMA were aligned bearishly, and the 200DMA acted as a significant resistance level during the recovery phase. Price has yet to retest these moving averages, and a break above the 50DMA could signal renewed optimism.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish during the collapse and remained negative throughout the consolidation phase, showing no sign of bearish exhaustion. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) during the consolidation and slightly rebounded, but no strong bullish momentum emerged. A sustained close above 50 on RSI would be a key trigger for potential bullish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly during the consolidation phase, from 1.05e-06 to 1.08e-06, indicating a potential buildup of volatility. Price has been trading near the middle band, with no strong directional bias. A breakout beyond the upper or lower band could signal a resumption of trend trading.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 21:30–21:45 ET sell-off, reaching $167,821, the highest of the day. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume during the consolidation phase, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with the bulk of the trade concentrated during the sell-off. Divergences between price and turnover suggest liquidity is thinning, increasing the risk of a sharp move on low volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low (4.2e-07) to the high (1.38e-06), key levels at 61.8% (9.3e-07) and 38.2% (1.02e-06) appear to have held as support levels. Price is currently hovering near 1.07e-06, above the 61.8% level, which could act as a temporary floor. A retest of this level with bullish confirmation may be a key setup for a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a short-term countertrend reversal trade based on RSI oversold levels and a narrow Bollinger Band contraction. The hypothesis is that during such consolidations, a 10–15% rebound is statistically likely within the next 4–6 candles if volume increases and RSI breaks above 50 with a bullish candle close. Given the current RSI at ~35 and Bollinger Bands at their narrowest in 24 hours, a short-term reversal trade could be considered with tight stop-loss placed below the recent swing low at 1.05e-06.