Market Overview for Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) — 2025-10-09

• Price drifted lower with a late-night breakdown below 1.4e-6.
• Volume remained muted, though a sharp 14:15 ET sell-off accelerated decline.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term reversal risk.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight consolidation before expanding on the break.
• No strong bullish confirmation emerged despite several failed attempts to retest 1.4e-6.

Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) traded lower over the last 24 hours, opening at 1.39e-6 (12:00 ET - 1), reaching a high of 1.4e-6, and falling to a low of 1.35e-6 before closing at 1.36e-6 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 57,012.7 BTC equivalents, and notional turnover reached 74.2 BTC in the same period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish breakdown pattern from a short-term consolidation range between 1.39e-6 and 1.4e-6, with the breakdown occurring around 08:30–09:00 ET. A long green candle at 09:15 ET briefly stalled the decline but failed to rekindle bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 14:15 ET as price fell below 1.36e-6. A doji at 01:45 ET indicated indecision, but it was followed by a directional breakdown rather than a reversal. Support is forming around the recent low of 1.35e-6, with a potential retracement target at 1.36e-6 to watch.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has fallen below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, no moving averages are evident in the current window due to insufficient data, but the overall trend appears to be declining. The 50–200 EMA crossover could have been bearish had it occurred earlier, but the price has already extended below key levels without immediate rejections.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory, confirming the bearish drift. The histogram has compressed slightly during the overnight consolidation but has expanded downward with the recent sell-off. RSI has fallen into oversold territory around the 30–35 level, which could suggest a short-term bounce. However, the lack of follow-through in bullish volume raises concerns about the strength of such a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were in a tight consolidation phase from 12:00–09:00 ET, suggesting low volatility and a buildup of potential. The breakdown from 1.4e-6 coincided with a widening of the bands, confirming the breakout’s authenticity. Current price action resides within the lower band, indicating continued pressure and potential for further downside unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally low throughout the day, with exceptions around 09:15–09:30 ET and 14:15–14:30 ET. The 09:15 ET candle showed a volume spike of 12,610.1 BTC equivalents but failed to produce a bullish reversal, indicating weakness. The 14:15 ET candle recorded a sharp 3345.1 BTC volume spike coinciding with a breakdown, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, with a strong dip below 1.36e-6 showing sellers were in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.39e-6 to 1.4e-6 swing, the 61.8% level sits at 1.38e-6, which was tested twice but failed to hold. The 1.36e-6 level represents the 38.2% retracement from the 1.4e-6 peak. Price is currently resting near this level and could either consolidate or break it further down. A move to 1.35e-6 (the 23.6% retracement) may be the next key level of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around the bearish engulfing pattern that occurred at 14:15 ET, combined with a RSI reading in oversold territory and a breakdown from a consolidating range. The strategy would look to enter a short position on the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed just above the high of 1.39e-6 and a target of 1.35e-6. Additional confirmation could come from a volume spike, as seen in the 14:15 ET candle, reinforcing the validity of the move. This strategy would aim to capture a short-term bearish bias while managing risk through tight stop placement.