Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC)

Summary

• Tranchess/USDC opened at 0.0407, touched a high of 0.0407 and a low of 0.038, and closed at 0.03959.
• Price declined through a key support level at 0.0400, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming after a short-term bounce.
• RSI approached oversold territory by 08:00 ET, suggesting potential for short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded with a sharp drop in the 04:45 ET candle, confirming a breakdown below 0.04028.
• Turnover spiked with the 04:45 ET candle, but volume remains uneven throughout the session.

Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC)

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.0407 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03959 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour range extended from 0.0407 to 0.038, with total volume of 63,652.8 and total turnover of 2,525.7 USDC.

The price trended lower through the session, breaking key support at 0.04028 and 0.0400, which were previously acting as a floor. A bearish engulfing pattern developed after a short-term rebound in the early hours of 2025-11-14, hinting at further downward bias. The 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart both declined, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period daily SMA remains above the current price, indicating a potential retest of this level.

MACD remained in negative territory, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, signaling weak momentum. RSI approached oversold levels around 08:00 ET, dipping below 30, which may suggest a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands widened during the 04:45 ET breakdown, with the price closing near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish pressure. Notably, volatility surged with the 04:45 ET candle, which saw a large low of 0.038 and a high of 0.03917, with a turnover of 15,709.0 USDC. This divergence between price and volume, however, remains inconclusive for a reversal.

Volume was uneven throughout the session, with the largest notional turnover occurring in the 04:45 ET candle, as price dropped sharply. A key Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0396 (38.2% of the 0.0405 to 0.038 move) may act as a short-term floor or retest point. Given the current price and the momentum indicators, a retest of the 0.0400–0.04028 area is likely in the next 24 hours, but a break below 0.0393 could signal a deeper correction. Investors should remain cautious of further volatility and potential short-covering bounces.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after the 04:45 ET breakdown, with price closing near the lower band. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early hours of 2025-11-14. MACD remained below zero, with RSI dipping into oversold territory around 08:00 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed oversold RSI condition aligns with the findings from a backtest of the RSI ≤ 30 entry signal on CHESSUSDC, using daily data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14. The backtest identified 197 oversold events, with the most favorable outcomes appearing around a 14–18-day holding window. Specifically, the average excess return reached a peak of approximately +5.3% at the 18-day mark, with win rates exceeding 60% after day 11. This suggests that if the current RSI dip into oversold territory (around 08:00 ET) is confirmed as a short-term bottom, a measured holding strategy of 14–18 days may provide an edge for investors. Further analysis using stop-loss filters or market regime breakdowns is recommended to refine entry and exit discipline.