Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price action showed a bullish reversal from intraday lows with a closing above 0.0632.
• Strong volume expansion occurred in the midday session, confirming breakouts.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions near 70, suggesting potential pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during peak volatility, showing increased market uncertainty.
• Downturn in turnover overnight may indicate fading momentum in the short term.

The Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) pair opened at 0.06231 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.06441 before closing at 0.06267 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 409,140.5 units with a turnover of $26,305.60, reflecting active market participation and volatility during key price swings.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a clear bearish reversal pattern on the 23:45 candle as it closed at 0.06322 with a long upper wick, followed by a continuation of downward pressure into the early morning hours. Support levels appear to form around 0.0618–0.0620, which were tested multiple times and held. Resistance levels at 0.0633 and 0.0638 were also prominent but failed to hold against subsequent bearish momentum.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bullish bias, though the daily timeframe 50-period MA is slightly below the 200-period MA, indicating a mixed longer-term outlook. The RSI closed near 60, which is neutral but shows a potential for near-term overbought pressure. The MACD remains positive with a narrowing histogram, hinting at slowing bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands widened during the midday session, peaking at 0.0644, and then narrowed in the evening as volatility decreased. Price spent a significant portion of the session in the upper and lower channels, indicating a lack of a clear trend. Volatility expansions were most notable between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, coinciding with the highest turnover.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 0.0623–0.0644 swing show 0.0636 as a key 61.8% retracement level, which failed to hold, leading to further bearish correction. The 38.2% level at ~0.0638 appears to be a key area for potential bounce or retest in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, with a stop-loss set at the nearest support level identified from the 15-minute OHLCV data. A profit target is set at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% level. Given the recent divergence in the MACD and RSI readings, this strategy would have triggered a long signal earlier in the 24-hour period, but the subsequent bearish reversal would have triggered a stop-loss near the 0.0618–0.0620 range. A revised approach, incorporating a bearish bias on the daily MA crossover, may yield better results in the near term. This highlights the importance of aligning both short- and long-term indicators to refine entry and exit signals.