Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-21)

• Price action opened at 0.07061 and closed at 0.07104, with a 24-hour range of 0.07–0.07241.
• Momentum shifted after a large bullish 15-minute candle at 23:30 ET pushed price to a high of 0.07241.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 23:30–00:00 ET window, with a notable volume spike of 165,168.9.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed signals, with overbought conditions briefly observed in the late night session.
• Volume and turnover diverged slightly in the early morning, indicating potential caution in price consolidation.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-20, the Tranchess/USDC pair opened at 0.07061 and closed at 0.07104 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour range spanned from a low of 0.07 to a high of 0.07241. Total trading volume reached 1,015,894.6 and turnover amounted to approximately $70,498.68, based on the 15-minute OHLCV dataset. The pair displayed a generally bullish bias, with a large bullish candle at 23:30 ET followed by consolidation and some sideways movement in the following hours.

Structure & Formations

The pair exhibited a notable bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart during the 23:30 ET session, as price surged from 0.07161 to 0.07241. This was followed by a strong consolidation phase that included several doji and spinning top candles, indicating indecision. Support levels appear to form around 0.07064–0.0708, with a key resistance level forming at 0.07135–0.07155. A bearish flag pattern was observed between 04:45 ET and 06:45 ET, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend after a pause.

Moving Averages

Using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price showed a bullish crossover around 23:45 ET and remained above both moving averages until the morning hours. This suggests short-term strength. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200-period averages are expected to show a neutral to slightly bullish alignment, based on the previous trend, but the 15-minute data shows a stronger near-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained above the signal line during the late night session, showing positive momentum that faded into a weaker signal by mid-morning. The RSI briefly entered overbought territory (above 70) in the 23:30–00:00 ET window but retreated to neutral levels by 04:00 ET. This suggests a potential pullback was priced in after the initial surge, though momentum has since stabilized in a sideways range.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent much of the 24-hour period within the Bollinger Bands, with a brief expansion observed during the 23:30–00:00 ET window. The bands widened as volatility increased, and price moved closer to the upper band before consolidating. By the morning hours, the bands began to contract again, suggesting a potential return to range-bound trading. Price currently resides closer to the middle band, indicating a balanced short-term trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 23:30 ET with a candle recording 165,168.9 units traded, aligning with the sharp price increase. However, in the following hours, volume declined despite continued sideways movement, indicating a potential divergence between price and volume. Turnover also showed signs of weakening during the consolidation phase, suggesting caution among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 23:30–00:00 ET swing, key retracement levels at 38.2% (0.0715) and 61.8% (0.0711) were tested in the morning hours. Price appears to have found temporary support at 0.07104, which aligns with the 61.8% level, and may face resistance around 0.0714–0.0715 if it moves higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI during the late night surge, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long at the close of the 23:30 ET candle with a stop-loss placed below 0.0711 and a take-profit target at 0.0720. This approach would aim to capitalize on the continuation of bullish momentum identified in the MACD and volume confirmation during that session. A trailing stop could be initiated once the price reaches the 0.0714–0.0715 resistance zone.