Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) on 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price drifted down from a high of $0.04133 to close at $0.04042, with bearish control in late hours.
• Volume spiked heavily at 134,741.9 near 21:15 ET before fading, while turnover diverged in final hours.
• RSI and momentum indicators pointed to oversold territory, with little immediate reversal confirmation.

Opening Narrative

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.04102 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.04133, and closed at $0.04042 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded in a tight range, with a total volume of 338,737.9 and a notional turnover of $13,925.05 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed a series of lower highs and lower closes, forming a descending wedge pattern, particularly from 18:00 to 22:00 ET. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:15 ET, confirming the bearish bias. The final candle at 05:30 ET showed a small bullish reversal but lacked conviction, with a long lower wick and a close near the high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages remained relatively flat, with no strong directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for much of the day, with a weak histogram, indicating weak momentum. RSI dipped below 30 toward the close, entering oversold territory but without a clear bullish divergence. There was no strong signal for a near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The price remained within the Bollinger Bands throughout the session, with the middle band acting as a key reference point. Volatility expanded briefly at 21:15 ET with the large-volume candle, but quickly contracted again, showing a lack of follow-through.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 21:15 ET with a trade of 134,741.9 units but then sharply declined until the close, suggesting waning interest. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, with the largest trade contributing $5,526.65 to turnover. Price and volume were in alignment during the early bearish phase but diverged as the session progressed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the 18:00 to 21:15 ET swing showed the price finding support near 61.8% at $0.04061 but failing to hold, breaking below it. On the daily chart, no strong Fibonacci levels were tested during the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the potential behavior of CHESSUSDC in overbought and oversold conditions, a backtest using the 14-day RSI would be valuable. RSI readings near or below 30 often precede corrective bounces, but confirmation via candlestick action is critical. If historical data confirms that RSI oversold levels are followed by at least a 5% rebound in 60% of cases, a short-term long bias could be considered when price and volume align with such signals. However, without accurate historical data for CHESSUSDC, the backtest may need to use CHESSUSDT as a proxy, which typically exhibits similar price behavior.