Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) on 2025-11-03

• Price declined from 0.04149 to 0.04027 over the last 24 hours on low-volume action.
• A sharp sell-off occurred after 00:15 ET, with 2693.5 volume pushing price to 0.0421 before a rapid reversal.
• Volatility spiked during the 15–16:00 ET period, with a 12.5% price swing between 0.03943 and 0.04004.
• Momentum indicators show bearish divergence with RSI below 40 and MACD trending downward.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the midday selloff, indicating a breakout phase that did not hold.

The Tranchess/USDC pair (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.04115 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.04027 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, with a high of 0.0421 and a low of 0.03837. Total volume over the period was 671,537.7, while total turnover amounted to approximately $26,791. Price declined steadily through the early morning hours, with a notable bearish reversal seen after a sharp 00:15 ET high of 0.0421.

Key support levels appeared at 0.04027 and 0.03943, with the 0.04006–0.04017 range showing some consolidation. A long lower shadow was observed during the 00:15–01:15 ET period, indicating rejection at higher levels. Resistance was noted around 0.04145, where multiple candles showed bearish reversal patterns.

Structure & Formations

During the early morning hours, the price formed a long lower shadow and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly after the 00:15 ET high. The 00:15–01:30 ET timeframe saw multiple bearish reversal candlesticks. A doji appeared at 02:45 ET, signaling indecision before a further decline. Notable bullish rejection occurred at 0.04006 and 0.04017, suggesting a potential short-term floor.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both remained above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily 50-period MA was slightly above the 100-period MA, indicating a weak bullish divergence that could be challenged if the 0.04027 level is not held.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained negative for most of the session, with bearish momentum accelerating after 00:15 ET. The histogram widened during the selloff phase, signaling strong short-term bearish pressure. RSI dropped below 40 and approached the 30 level during the 15:30–16:45 ET period, indicating oversold territory that has not triggered a meaningful rebound. This suggests a possible continuation of the bearish trend if the 0.04027 support level fails.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 15:30–16:45 ET period, coinciding with the selloff. Price action stayed below the midline for most of the session, indicating bearish pressure. A contraction was seen around 04:30–05:00 ET, followed by a breakout that did not hold, suggesting a lack of conviction in the short-term reversal attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2693.5 at 00:15 ET, confirming the high of 0.0421. However, the following candles showed significantly lower volumes, suggesting weak follow-through in the bullish direction. The 15:30–16:45 ET period also saw a large volume spike of 65641.0 units, confirming the sharp drop to 0.03943. Turnover during this period was high relative to the volume, indicating bearish participation. Divergence between price and volume is bearish and may lead to further declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.03837 to 0.0421, the 61.8% level is at 0.04046, which aligns with the 0.0404–0.04051 range seen during the 06:30–07:45 ET period. The 38.2% level is at 0.03962, which aligns with the 0.03961 close at 11:15 ET. The 0.04027 level is near the 23.6% retracement and could offer a potential bounce area if bearish momentum weakens.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data highlights bearish momentum and weak volume participation in key reversal patterns, particularly during the morning selloff. A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying "long-lower-shadow" candlesticks in low-volume environments, followed by a confirmation of bearish continuation. For example, the 00:15 ET candle shows a long lower shadow and high volume, which could be used as a sell entry point if followed by a close below the shadow’s low. A 3-day holding period backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 could validate the strategy’s efficacy in similar setups. Given the current technical conditions, this pattern-based approach appears to align with the bearish bias of the market.