Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) on 2025-10-29

• Price declined from 0.04726 to 0.04559, with a closing bearish reversal
• RSI near oversold levels suggests potential for a rebound
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, then stabilized after 08:00 ET
• Bollinger Bands constricted after 02:00 ET, indicating a period of consolidation
• Volume surged in the early session but faded after 08:00 ET, signaling weakening bearish momentum

The 24-hour period for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.04689 on October 28 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.04559 on October 29 at 16:00 ET. The price reached a high of 0.04759 and fell to a low of 0.04444. Total traded volume amounted to 625,305.3, with a notional turnover of approximately $28,330 based on the average price.

The price action formed a distinct bearish reversal pattern over the session, particularly in the late hours on October 28 and into early October 29, as the asset dropped from a high of 0.04759 to a low of 0.04444, before stabilizing around 0.04558 in the morning. A large bearish candle formed at 19:15 ET on October 28, with a range of 0.00058 and high volume, followed by a consolidation phase. By the late evening, the price had entered a range between 0.04558 and 0.04560, indicating a potential near-term support level.

The RSI for the 15-minute chart dropped into oversold territory (below 30) during the overnight session and remained there into the early morning, hinting at the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD was negative and declining during the early part of the session, reflecting fading bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction after 02:00 ET, suggesting a lull in volatility before expanding again in the early morning hours. Price remained within the bands but near the lower boundary, supporting the RSI signal of an oversold condition.

Volume was most concentrated in the early hours of the session, with a large 19:15 ET candle accounting for over 86,000 volume alone. However, after 08:00 ET, volume activity waned significantly, indicating diminished interest from traders. Price and volume diverged in the later part of the session, as the price remained near the 0.04558 level while volume activity dropped off, suggesting a possible stall in the bearish move.

The Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing from the high of 0.04759 to the low of 0.04444 indicate potential support at the 61.8% level, which aligns with the 0.04559 to 0.04560 range observed in the late morning. This area is likely to see renewed buying interest if the price tests it again. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned as key areas of potential resistance and support, respectively, and the price appears to be approaching the 50-period MA as a short-term reference point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed RSI behavior and the RSI-14 signal of an oversold condition, a potential backtest could be constructed to evaluate a mean-reversion strategy. This would involve entering long positions when RSI-14 dips below 30, holding for a fixed 5-day period, and then closing the position. Given the recent price behavior of CHESSUSDC, such a strategy could be backtested using historical data from 2022 to 2025. However, it is important to note that the system could not confirm the exact data source for CHESSUSDC, which is likely due to a missing or non-standard ticker symbol. To proceed, the exact exchange-specific ticker must be provided—such as “CHESS-USDC-BINANCE”—or a data file must be uploaded. Once confirmed, RSI-14 levels can be calculated, and the strategy can be run across the historical dataset to assess its effectiveness and risk profile.