Market Overview: Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – 2025-10-10 12:00 ET – 15-Minute OHLCV

• Tranchess/USDC rallied to 0.06181 before a sharp 5.2% correction to 0.05822, indicating bearish reversal pressure.
• RSI overbought above 70 early, but a bearish crossover confirmed momentum exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded during the sell-off, with a 350k USDC notional turnover spike post-15:45 ET.
• Bollinger Bands compressed before the move, suggesting consolidation prior to the break.
• Key support at 0.05945 is being tested, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming below this level.

At 12:00 ET–1, Tranchess/USDC opened at 0.059, peaked at 0.06181, and dropped to 0.0577 before closing at 0.05822 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 386,190.2 USDC, with a notional turnover of $23,664.74. The asset appears to be forming a bearish continuation pattern, with key resistance at 0.05945 and support at 0.05893 being tested.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action shows a sharp bearish reversal after an early rally. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.06011–0.06002, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend. A key support level at 0.05945 is now in focus, having been rejected twice in the last 90 minutes. A breakdown below 0.05893 may trigger further selling pressure toward 0.05852, a level previously tested at 16:30 ET.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned bearish after 18:00 ET, confirming the reversal. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.06002, and the 20-period MA at 0.06065, forming a death cross. Daily 50, 100, and 200-period MAs remain bullish, but a breakdown below the 20-period MA could see the trend turn negative for the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned bearish at 17:30 ET, aligning with the price reversal. RSI peaked above 70 at 18:30 ET, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a sharp decline to 29 by 15:45 ET—suggesting oversold conditions. However, a bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests further downside potential if the 0.05893 level breaks.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 15:30 ET, with the bands widening to 0.0021 (±1 SD). Price closed at 0.05822, sitting below the lower band, indicating strong bearish momentum. A bounce back into the bands may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend, but a retest of the lower band could reinforce bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 352,386.3 USDC at 15:45 ET during the sharp sell-off, with notional turnover peaking at $20,708.09—over 87% of the total 24-hour turnover. Price and volume aligned during the correction, confirming bearish strength. A further drop with increasing volume could indicate a breakdown in conviction, while declining volume may suggest exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.05852–0.06181 swing, key retracement levels include 0.06065 (38.2%), 0.05981 (61.8%), and 0.05931 (78.6%). Price is currently hovering near 0.05893, which aligns with the 61.8% level from a larger 0.0577–0.06117 move. A rejection above this level could trigger a test of the 38.2% retracement at 0.06065, but a breakdown below 0.05822 would target 0.0577.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions upon a confirmed breakdown below the 20-period MA with a closing bar below the lower Bollinger Band. A stop-loss is placed above the 50-period MA, and a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy could be tested on similar swings in the last two weeks, with RSI divergence and volume confirmation used to filter entries. A trailing stop may be added after 50% profit is achieved to lock in gains.