Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – 2025-09-18

• Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) closed at 0.07173, up from 0.06904, with a 24-hour high of 0.07266 and a low of 0.06833.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged after 19:00 ET, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
• Volatility surged in the evening session as the pair broke out of a range and tested new 24-hour highs.
• Volume spiked during the breakout at 19:30–20:30 ET, confirming the directional move.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase or pullback.

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.06904 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.07173 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair reached a high of 0.07266 and a low of 0.06833 over the 24-hour window. Total traded volume amounted to 378,416.6 units, with a notional turnover of $26,688.70 based on average pricing.

The price action on the 15-minute chart was marked by a clear bullish breakout after a period of consolidation. A key support level at 0.07074 was tested and held during the afternoon before the price surged past the 0.0715 resistance level. The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET confirmed the shift in sentiment. Additionally, a doji formed at 05:45 ET, indicating indecision prior to the breakout. This suggests that traders should monitor the 0.07074 level as a potential support and 0.0724 as a near-term resistance.

On the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, the 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA around 19:30 ET, signaling a short-term bullish crossover. The 50 MA remained above the 100 and 200 MA lines on the daily chart, indicating that the medium-term trend remains positive. The 15-minute chart showed the price staying above both MAs throughout the late session, reinforcing the bullish case.

The RSI surged from the mid-40s to near 70 by 20:30 ET, signaling overbought conditions. This suggests a possible pullback or consolidation before further upward movement. The MACD line crossed above the signal line just before 20:00 ET and maintained a positive divergence, confirming the strength of the bullish move. Bollinger Bands widened in the evening as volatility increased, with the price closing near the upper band, indicating a strong move and potential for a correction.

Volume was significantly higher during the breakout period, especially between 19:30 and 20:45 ET, when the price moved from 0.07074 to 0.07266. This volume surge confirmed the directional bias. Notional turnover also increased during this time, aligning with the price action. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed, suggesting strong conviction in the move. The volume-based confirmation supports the view that the current rally is not a false break.

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the recent swing from 0.06833 to 0.07266. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.07092 was tested and held in the afternoon, before the price moved on to higher levels. The 38.2% level at 0.07166 was also briefly tested, reinforcing its role as a potential support zone. On the daily chart, the pair remains above the 50% retracement of its longer-term trend, which is currently around 0.07100. Traders should monitor these levels for potential reversals or continuation patterns.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy could leverage the breakout above 0.07074 and the confirmation by strong volume and bullish candlestick patterns. A potential approach would involve entering long positions on a close above 0.0715, with a stop-loss placed below 0.07074. A target of 0.0724 could be set based on the RSI overbought level and the upper Bollinger Band. Additionally, Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.07166 and 0.07092 could serve as profit-taking or reversal signals. This setup would capitalize on the momentum and volatility seen during the breakout, aligning with the technical indicators discussed. The strategy should be tested over multiple similar price patterns to ensure consistency.