Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) as of 2025-09-17 12:00 ET

• Tranchess/USDC traded down 14.6% over 24 hours, closing at 0.06908 after a deep sell-off from 0.07428.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 18:00 ET, with a 0.8% drop from 0.07383 to 0.07346 in one candle.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions late in the session, but volume failed to confirm strength.
• Key support tested near 0.06886, with a potential rebound forming at 0.06904.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price dropped below the 20-period moving average after 19:00 ET.

The Tranchess/USDC pair (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.07428 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.06908 (12:00 ET), with a high of 0.07458 and a low of 0.06886. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 466,229.1 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $32,476.62 (using average price of $0.07).

Structure & Formations

Price action was defined by a bearish breakdown from 0.07383 after 19:00 ET, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming at 0.07458-0.07386. A key resistance level appears at 0.07405, where price stalled twice before breaking down. Support levels emerged at 0.06904 and 0.06886, with the latter showing a strong reaction as price bounced from a near 6% intraday drop. A doji at 0.06910-0.06910 around 13:45 ET indicated indecision amid the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during the sell-off, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, price closed below both the 50-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a weakening trend over a broader timeframe. The 100-period MA provided partial support in the late hours but failed to hold as volume waned.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying short-term reversals at key Fibonacci levels after a strong bearish breakdown. For instance, if price tests the 61.8% retracement of the 0.07458 to 0.06886 move (~0.06998) and fails to close above it, a short entry may be considered with a stop above 0.07000. This approach would rely on momentum indicators like RSI and MACD confirming bearish momentum while the volume profile supports a continuation of the trend.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26/9 MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained below the zero line through the session, reinforcing the downward momentum. The histogram expanded during the main selloff, indicating a strong bearish impulse. RSI reached 28 by 10:00 ET, signaling an oversold condition, but failed to trigger a reversal. A failure to rise above 50 without a volume spike suggests exhaustion on the buy-side.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 19:00 ET as price dropped through the lower band, confirming a breakout. The bands widened significantly during the 0.07386–0.07346 sell-off, indicating heightened uncertainty. Price closed near the lower band at 0.06908, and the upper band currently sits at ~0.07405. A move above the upper band could indicate a short-term reversal, but a retest of the lower band is likely before a bullish bounce can be confirmed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 23:00–02:30 ET window as price dropped from 0.07383 to 0.0691, peaking at 340,541.1 USDC for the candle at 11:00 ET. However, late-session volume declined sharply after 03:00 ET, with the 12:00 ET candle showing only 3136.1 USDC traded. This suggests a weakening of bearish conviction. Notional turnover also dropped from $24,581.70 at 11:00 ET to just $220.00 at 12:00 ET, indicating fading pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the most significant retracement levels were at 0.07405 (38.2%), 0.07389 (50%), and 0.07355 (61.8%). Price reacted at each of these levels, with the 61.8% acting as the strongest support during the final sell-off. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent bear wave from 0.07455 to 0.06886 is at 0.07097, which may act as a key pivot if the pair enters a consolidation phase.

Tranchess/USDC appears to be consolidating near key support at 0.06886–0.06904, with momentum indicators suggesting exhaustion in both directions. A retest of the 0.07405–0.07455 range may occur before a new directional bias emerges. Investors should closely monitor volume and turnover as confirmation or divergence signals for any near-term move. Caution is warranted as volatility remains elevated, and the pair may remain range-bound or experience sharp corrections in the next 24 hours.