Market Overview for Tranchess/USD Coin (CHESSUSDC)

• Price action shows a bearish bias with key support tested at 0.07190.
• Volatility expanded mid-day as price broke below critical 15-minute moving averages.
• Volume spiked at 0.07215 and 0.07270, indicating potential support/resistance areas.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum and possible short-term oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands indicate moderate volatility with price currently near the lower band.

Tranchess/USD Coin (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.07346 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.07197 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.07385 and a low of 0.07138 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded amounted to 99,788.1 units, with notional turnover reaching $7,420.15 (based on USD Coin equivalent).

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formed a bearish continuation trend, with a sharp breakdown from the 15-minute 50 EMA following a large bearish candle at 0.07253, which closed at 0.07216. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.07275–0.07216 around 05:45–06:00 ET. Key support levels include 0.07190–0.07159 and 0.07210–0.07215, while resistance is seen at 0.07270–0.07276 and 0.07290–0.07300. A doji formed around 0.07268 at 02:15–02:30 ET, indicating indecision before a sharp decline.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both turned bearish, with the 20 EMA currently at 0.07250 and the 50 EMA at 0.07280, both crossing below price action after a mid-day bearish surge. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200 EMA lines have aligned bearishly, reinforcing a longer-term downward bias. Price is now below all three, suggesting continued weakness unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative, crossing below the signal line and forming bearish divergences around 04:00–05:00 ET. The RSI reached an oversold level of 35 at 14:00–14:15 ET but failed to close above the 40 threshold, indicating limited immediate buying pressure. A reversal is possible if RSI rebounds above 50, but for now, momentum remains bearish with no clear sign of a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after a contraction from 03:00–04:00 ET, with price breaking the lower Bollinger Band at 0.07138–0.07166. This breakout suggests increased bearish pressure, and if the price remains within the bands, it could indicate continued consolidation. A retest of the lower band may trigger further selling pressure or a bounce, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at key levels, notably at 0.07215 and 0.07270, both of which appear to be significant support and resistance areas. The largest notional turnover occurred at 0.07213 with $1,617.61, indicating a large block trade or institutional activity. There was a noticeable divergence between price and volume at 11:45–12:00 ET, where price dropped sharply without a proportional volume spike, suggesting a possible short-term oversold condition.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart show the price has reached the 61.8% level at 0.07190, with potential support at 38.2% (0.07230) and 50% (0.07216). On the daily chart, price has approached the 61.8% level of the recent bearish move, which aligns with the 0.07190–0.07159 range. A break below this level would signal a possible test of the 78.6% (0.07145) level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and the alignment of key moving averages, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting at the close of a bearish engulfing candle or when RSI crosses below 40 with confirmation by a bearish break of the 15-minute 50 EMA. Stops could be placed above the recent swing high of 0.07270, with targets aligned to Fibonacci levels at 0.07190 and 0.07159. This strategy would benefit from high volume activity at key levels and would align well with the observed Bollinger Band breakout and bearish MACD divergence.

Looking ahead, Tranchess/USD Coin may continue to face pressure if key support at 0.07190–0.07159 is tested, but a short-term bounce above 0.07215 could offer a limited reversal. Investors should remain cautious, especially if volume remains thin and divergences persist.