Market Overview for Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY)

• TOWNSTRY traded higher over the last 24 hours, closing at 1.108 after opening at 1.071.
• Price surged 3.43% with a high of 1.138 and a low of 1.066, showing strong bullish momentum in the latter half.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price breaking through several prior resistance levels by late afternoon.
• Volume and turnover increased in the final 6 hours, confirming the upward trend with strong accumulation.
• RSI hit 68 in late afternoon, suggesting near overbought conditions, while MACD crossed into a strong positive territory.

The Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) pair opened at 1.071 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET and closed at 1.108 by 2025-09-20 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 1.138 and a low of 1.066. Total volume for the session was 34,261,149 and total notional turnover reached approximately 37,023,725. Price saw a sharp reversal in the afternoon, forming a bullish continuation pattern with high conviction.

Price action showed a strong bullish reversal forming by late afternoon, with a series of higher highs and higher lows confirming the breakout. A key support at 1.075 was tested and rejected, followed by a decisive move above 1.100, which had acted as a resistance earlier in the session. A strong engulfing candle at 09:30 ET (13:30 local) marked the turning point, followed by a strong upward continuation. The pair appears to have shifted into a bullish phase, with immediate resistance at 1.138 and a potential target at 1.160 based on Fibonacci extensions.

A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart show price above both, with the 50 EMA rising steeply into alignment with the trend. The MACD turned positive mid-session and maintained bullish momentum into the close, with the histogram showing strong bullish divergence. RSI reached 68 by late afternoon, indicating strong momentum but not yet overbought conditions. Price spent most of the session above the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting high volatility and a continuation of the bullish trend is likely unless a reversal pattern forms at the top end of the range.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 1.066 low to the 1.138 high identify key levels of 38.2% at 1.116 and 61.8% at 1.125. These levels align with observed consolidation and breakout points later in the session. Notably, volume and turnover spiked in the 05:15–07:30 ET timeframe, coinciding with a sharp breakout and confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between the RSI and price was noted in the final 90 minutes, as RSI pulled back slightly while price continued higher. This suggests some internal exhaustion but does not negate the overall bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be based on a combination of the engulfing candlestick pattern and a RSI crossover above 50. This approach would involve entering a long position when a bullish engulfing candle appears on the 15-minute chart, with confirmation that RSI has crossed above 50 to signal bullish momentum. A stop-loss could be placed just below the low of the engulfing candle, while a take-profit target could be aligned with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Trailing stops could be used as price moves higher, especially as the MACD remains in a strong positive phase. This strategy could be further refined by requiring increasing volume and turnover to confirm the pattern, reducing false signals and improving trade quality.