Market Overview: Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) - 2025-10-14

• Price dropped from 0.514 to 0.462 on 2025-10-14, reflecting bearish momentum in late session.
• Volume spiked to 6.56 million at 15:15 ET, confirming a large sell-off.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, but price failed to recover decisively.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-18:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.471 and 0.484 showed limited support.

The Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) opened at 0.493 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.473 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.514 and a low of 0.462. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 10,818,376.0, and notional turnover reached 5,141.9. Price action showed significant bearish pressure in the latter half of the day, with key breakdowns below 0.5 and 0.475 levels.

Structure and key formations revealed a bearish trend, particularly after 18:00 ET. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed between 18:00 and 18:15 ET, signaling short-term bearish continuation. The 0.50 level failed to hold as support, and the 0.471–0.484 range showed limited buying interest. A morning bull trend between 10:00 and 10:45 ET saw minor recovery but failed to reclaim higher ground. The price appears to be forming a short-term descending channel from 0.514 to 0.462.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly post-18:00 ET, suggesting heightened volatility. Price remained near the lower band for much of the late session, indicating oversold conditions. RSI dipped below 30 by 10:45 ET and stayed near 30–35 for the remainder of the day, reinforcing bearish momentum. The MACD remained in negative territory for the final 6 hours, with the histogram shrinking slightly, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. A potential bounce off the 0.471 Fibonacci retracement level was attempted but failed.

Volume spiked at 15:15 ET to 6.56 million, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.462. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish divergence in that period. However, volume declined after 20:00 ET, suggesting fading seller dominance. A bearish divergence formed between price and volume in the early afternoon, with volume declining while the price continued lower. This could indicate short-term exhaustion, though further confirmation is needed.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest results for the “Bullish Engulfing 5-Day Hold” strategy align with the candlestick patterns observed, particularly the large engulfing patterns seen in the morning and late afternoon. The strategy’s reliance on close price data, 5-day holding periods, and lack of stop-loss/take-profit rules reflect a pure trend-following approach. Given today’s bearish bias, the strategy’s performance in a bearish environment would be crucial. A similar bearish engulfing pattern seen in the early morning at 10:00 ET showed limited follow-through, which may suggest the strategy would have exited with minimal gains or losses. A full backtest analysis would help determine its robustness in both bullish and bearish conditions.