Market Overview for Toncoin (TONUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Toncoin traded within a defined range of $3.313–$3.431, with a late-day breakout to fresh 24-hour highs at $3.431.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near $3.36 after a retest of key support at $3.332, signaling potential reversal.
• Momentum accelerated on the 15-minute MACD, crossing into positive territory late, with RSI peaking at 68.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the final 2 hours of the session, with Bollinger Band width increasing by 15%.
• Turnover spiked 10x to $3.3M at 16:00 ET, confirming a breakout above $3.40, though volume remains below average.

Toncoin (TONUSDT) opened at $3.322 on 2025-08-08 12:00 ET, hit a high of $3.431, and closed at $3.420 on 2025-08-09 12:00 ET, trading between $3.313 and $3.431. Total volume was 13.19 million coins, with a notional turnover of $44.5 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw Toncoin form a bullish flag pattern between $3.332 and $3.39, followed by a breakout above resistance at $3.40. The bullish engulfing pattern at $3.36 acted as a key reversal signal. A doji at $3.337 early in the session suggested indecision, but buying pressure resumed by midday.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20SMA at $3.395 and 50SMA at $3.387, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The 1-hour chart shows Toncoin above the 50EMA and 100EMA, but below the 200EMA, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory at 16:00 ET, with a histogram of 0.004, confirming the late-session breakout. RSI reached 68 at the high and pulled back to 58, avoiding overbought territory for now. Divergence between price and RSI is minimal, indicating solid momentum confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the final 2 hours, with the Bollinger Band width increasing by ~15%, from 0.049 to 0.056. Price closed just below the +1σ band, indicating a sharp but not yet overextended move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume picked up sharply during the breakout, with $3.3 million in turnover at 16:00 ET, nearly 10x the average for earlier hours. However, notional volume remained below the peak of $5.7M seen at 05:15 ET. The price and volume correlation was strong during the final push, confirming institutional buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute swing from $3.313 to $3.431 saw a retest at $3.36, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level. The 61.8% level at $3.38 acted as a minor support before the final push. On the daily chart, the recent rally from $3.12 to $3.43 suggests a possible pullback to $3.28 (61.8% retracement) could be a near-term target.

The forward-looking view suggests Toncoin could test $3.45–$3.47 in the next 24 hours, based on the current bullish momentum and breakout confirmation. However, a pullback to $3.33–$3.35 is possible if volume does not confirm a strong close above $3.42. Investors should watch for divergence in the RSI and Bollinger Band contraction as early warning signs of a potential reversal.