Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether USDt (TONUSDT)

• Toncoin/Tether USDt traded in a narrow range, consolidating below key resistance at $3.10.
• Volume surged during the afternoon ET dip, confirming a short-term bearish bias.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• A 15-minute doji at 12:45 ET signals indecision after a sharp pullback.
• Bollinger Bands have contracted, hinting at a possible breakout or breakdown.

Toncoin/Tether USDt opened at $3.092 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.106, and closed at $3.05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. The pair traded between $3.05 and $3.106, with total volume of ~587,948.7 and turnover of ~$1,808,391.6 over 24 hours. The session was marked by a sharp pullback in late morning ET and a consolidation phase overnight.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish structure, with a key support forming at $3.05 after a series of lower highs. A bearish engulfing pattern at $3.073–$3.078 confirmed a short-term reversal from a modest rally. A doji at $3.099–$3.094 indicated indecision following a brief bullish push. The most recent candle at $3.049–$3.05 suggests a potential near-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA has moved down below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, both the 50 and 200-period MAs are above the price, suggesting Toncoin remains in a larger bearish trend despite short-term consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has been negative for most of the session with bearish crossovers, indicating fading bullish momentum. The RSI is in oversold territory (<30), suggesting a potential near-term bounce. However, the histogram and line have not diverged from price, so the oversold condition could persist without immediate reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have contracted over the past 2–3 hours, signaling a period of low volatility and potential for a breakout or breakdown. The price has tested the lower band several times, reinforcing the bearish bias and possibly signaling a short-term floor at $3.05.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon ET sell-off, with one candle at $3.074–$3.081 showing over 111,546 units traded, reinforcing the bearish move. Turnover also followed suit, confirming the price action. However, volume has been thin during the overnight consolidation phase, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.086 to $3.106, the 61.8% level is at $3.094, which the price tested before falling. The daily chart shows a 38.2% retracement level at $3.077, which has acted as a key support during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when RSI dips below 30 and the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, while confirming volume increases by at least 20% from the prior candle. Exit conditions include a 5% stop loss or a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Given today's conditions—RSI in oversold territory, a bearish MA crossover, and strong volume during the dip—this strategy would have triggered a short entry at ~$3.076. The strategy’s success relies on Toncoin maintaining its bearish momentum and not breaking above key resistance levels in the near term.