Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• TONUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of 2.786–2.849, closing near the upper end at 2.848.
• Momentum remained bullish in the afternoon, but bearish divergence emerged after 00:00 ET.
• Volume was concentrated in the early morning and late afternoon, with notable price-volume dislocations observed post-breakout.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the day, indicating rising volatility, while RSI hovered in overbought territory until late.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET, followed by a failed bearish rejection near 2.850.

At 12:00 ET on October 2, 2025, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.786, surged to a high of $2.849, and closed the 24-hour period at $2.848. Total volume amounted to 1,388,936.36, with a notional turnover of $3,748,321.58. The pair showed a clear shift in sentiment during the trading day, with a strong bullish push in the late afternoon before a bearish reversal emerged in the early hours of October 3.

Structure and formations revealed a key resistance forming near $2.850, where a rejection pattern (a bearish harami) occurred at 19:30 ET. This level coincided with the 2.847–2.852 Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous upward leg. Support was evident near $2.800–2.805, with the price testing this range twice in the morning and bouncing back. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:00 ET, indicating a short-term reversal and confirming buying pressure. However, this was later challenged, and the pair reversed lower after 00:00 ET, forming a potential bearish divergence in price and volume.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the afternoon, supporting the upward move, but a bearish crossover followed at 01:00 ET. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the mid-evening rally and dropped below 50 by 05:00 ET, signaling waning momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded as the pair approached the upper band during the peak rally, confirming increased volatility. The closing price remained near the upper band, suggesting a continuation could be likely if buyers re-enter. The 20-period EMA was above the 50-period EMA for most of the session, maintaining a bullish bias.

The 15-minute chart confirmed that volume spiked during key breakout and breakdown phases, particularly between 19:00–20:00 ET and 00:15–00:45 ET. During the morning consolidation, volume decreased, aligning with the sideways range. Notional turnover also saw a sharp increase during these periods, supporting the breakout thesis. Price and turnover diverged slightly during the breakdown phase, indicating some uncertainty in market direction. A bearish divergence appeared in the 00:00–02:00 ET window, with falling prices and lower volume confirming weakening bearish conviction.

The forward outlook suggests that TONUSDT is likely to remain in a tight range between 2.800 and 2.850 in the next 24 hours. A retest of the $2.850 level could confirm bearish sentiment, especially if it closes below 2.845. On the flip side, a breakout above 2.850 with increasing volume may signal a resumption of the bullish trend. Investors should also watch for a potential breakdown below the 2.800 support, which could accelerate downward momentum. Risk remains moderate, but the potential for a sharp move in either direction should be factored into position sizing.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions at the 2.800 support level when RSI dips below 30 and volume increases, with a stop-loss below 2.790 and a take-profit at the 2.850 resistance. Conversely, short positions could be initiated at the 2.850 resistance when RSI exceeds 70, with a stop-loss above 2.860 and a target at 2.800. This approach leverages overbought/oversold conditions and volume confirmation, aligning with the observed patterns in the 15-minute timeframe. The strategy would benefit from monitoring Bollinger Band contractions and Fibonacci retracements for entry refinement.