Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) – October 20, 2025

• Price dropped from $2.28 to $2.25 amid mixed candlestick patterns and high volatility.
• Volume spiked significantly during the rally to $2.29, showing strong buying pressure.
• RSI dipped below 40, suggesting bearish momentum but not oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands widened in early ET hours, indicating increased uncertainty and potential breakouts.
• MACD turned negative post-08:00 ET, signaling potential bearish divergence with price.

The 24-hour period for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.23 at 12:00 ET – 1 and reached a high of $2.29 before settling at $2.25 by 12:00 ET. The pair dipped to a low of $2.198, indicating significant intraday volatility. Total volume was approximately 1,509,201.41, while total turnover (volume × price) stood at roughly $3,378,083.96, showing robust liquidity and trading activity.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a sharp rally starting at 06:30 ET, where price broke above $2.28 and briefly touched $2.29, followed by a consolidation phase. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 10:00 ET as price moved from $2.28 to $2.26. A long lower wick at 11:45 ET and a doji at 12:00 ET signaled indecision and potential exhaustion in the downward move. Key support levels were identified at $2.25 and $2.22, with resistance forming near $2.28.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near $2.24 in early ET hours, suggesting a bullish crossover that supported the morning rally. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed near $2.21, indicating a potential trend reversal from bearish to neutral. The price closing above the 50-day MA suggests short-term bullish bias but remains below the 200-day MA, indicating medium-term uncertainty.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 08:00 ET as bearish momentum gathered, but remained above zero until 11:30 ET, showing a lagged bearish signal. The RSI dipped below 40, reflecting weakening momentum, though not yet entering oversold territory. This suggests the bearish move may continue, but with limited conviction. A RSI rebound above 50 would signal renewed bullish intent.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 04:00 and 07:00 ET, coinciding with the sharp rally and subsequent consolidation. Price hovered near the upper band during the peak of the move and then retested the lower band after the 10:00 ET doji. This volatility expansion suggests increased uncertainty, with potential for both a breakout or a consolidation pattern in the coming hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of $345,625.70 during the 06:30 ET candle, supporting the rally to $2.29. However, volume dropped off during the consolidation phase, suggesting weaker follow-through demand. Total turnover showed a peak at $345,625.70 and remained elevated for much of the session, indicating strong liquidity and participation, especially during key price levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $2.198 to $2.29, the 38.2% level fell at $2.256 and the 61.8% level at $2.233. Price tested the 61.8% level at $2.233 and bounced, but failed to break above $2.256. This suggests that the 2.256–2.28 range may act as a key resistance cluster for the next 24 hours, with a break above it likely to open the path for a test of $2.30.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine a potential strategy, it may be useful to define a clear support level as a reference point. A viable approach could involve testing the performance of the pair when price dips below or touches the 200-day SMA, a classic technical support. Alternatively, a horizontal level such as $2.20 could be monitored as a key psychological level, with trades initiated on confirmed breakouts or retests. For a dynamic approach, the 50-day lowest swing low can also be used, offering adaptive support levels for each backtesting cycle. Once the support level is defined, the strategy could include entry triggers on price crossing below the level, with stop-loss and take-profit levels based on Fibonacci or RSI indicators. This framework would allow for a systematic evaluation of market behavior in response to well-defined levels and potentially optimize a rules-based trading strategy.