Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT): Mixed Momentum Amid Volatility

• Price consolidates near a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level after a sharp midday decline.
• Volume spikes during the 17:15 ET session as TONUSDT tests a key support level near $3.183.
• RSI and MACD show mixed signals, with RSI hovering near neutral and MACD narrowing amid low momentum.
• Price action forms a bullish harami pattern around 20:15 ET, suggesting short-term indecision.
• Volatility expanded from midday through 06:00 ET, aligning with a sharp move toward a new 24-hour high of $3.247.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $3.223 on September 13 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $3.247 before settling at $3.24 at 12:00 ET on September 14. The pair traded between $3.183 and $3.247 over the 24-hour period with a total volume of 3,018,629.61 and a notional turnover of $9,768,121.95.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a distinct consolidation pattern after a sharp bearish move from $3.23 to $3.183 on 17:15 ET. A candle with a large bearish body (open: $3.211, close: $3.184) marked a key support test. Later in the session, a bullish harami at 20:15 ET (open: $3.214, close: $3.214) and a series of higher lows from 21:15 ET to 02:15 ET indicated potential short-term accumulation.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum suggests a 15-minute 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA during the 21:15–01:15 ET window. The price closed above both, suggesting a possible continuation of a short-term bullish trend. However, the daily 50/100/200 SMA structure is neutral to slightly bearish, indicating long-term traders remain cautious.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a narrowing histogram from 17:15 to 00:15 ET, indicating fading momentum during the bearish phase. RSI, on the other hand, oscillated between 40 and 50 during the consolidation phase and crossed into overbought territory above 60 after 05:30 ET. This divergence between MACD and RSI suggests a potential short-term reversal could be in play.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 02:15–07:00 ET window as price surged toward the upper Bollinger band. After reaching a 24-hour high of $3.247 at 06:00 ET, price retracted into the middle band, suggesting traders may be taking profit. The recent band contraction observed at 19:30–20:15 ET may foreshadow a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Notable volume spikes occurred at 17:15 ET and 06:00 ET, with turnover surging by over 120% in the hour following the bearish breakdown. The volume-to-price divergence observed at 18:00–19:00 ET suggests caution for long positions. A subsequent increase in turnover at 05:30–06:00 ET aligned with price pushing into overbought territory, supporting the momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 17:15–21:15 ET swing (low: $3.183, high: $3.227), price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level at $3.218. The 24-hour swing from $3.183 to $3.247 shows a potential 38.2% retracement at $3.226, which price briefly touched twice in the early morning. Traders should monitor the 50% and 61.8% levels as potential support/resistance in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could use the 20/50SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart as a trigger for long entries, especially when RSI crosses above 50 and volume increases by more than 20% from the prior bar. A stop-loss could be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a target at the 38.2% or 50% retracement. This aligns with the observed price action on 20:15–21:15 ET, where a combination of higher volume, a bullish harami, and a positive RSI crossover may have generated a successful long signal.