Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT)

Summary
• TONUSDT tests key support at $1.86–1.87 amid a consolidation phase following a sharp intraday rally to $1.915.
• Volume surges during the 16:30–17:00 ET window, coinciding with a $1.894 close after a failed bullish breakout.
• RSI signals overbought conditions at intraday highs but shows weakening momentum toward the close, suggesting caution.
• Bollinger Bands widen during the rally, indicating rising volatility, though price reverts toward the 20-period moving average.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appears near $1.885–1.887, potentially foreshadowing further downward correction.

At 12:00 ET–1 on January 7, 2026, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $1.869, reached a high of $1.915, and a low of $1.846, closing at $1.894 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.79M, with a notional turnover of $3.37M.

Structure & Moving Averages

The 5-minute chart shows TONUSDT forming a bullish flag pattern following a sharp rally to $1.915, with the 20-period moving average at $1.886 providing temporary support. The 50-period line has acted as a dynamic floor during pullbacks. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines remain widely separated, with no immediate convergence suggesting trend ambiguity.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD shows a narrowing bullish divergence after the 16:30 ET peak, indicating waning momentum. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 at $1.915, but has since fallen back into neutral territory. Bollinger Bands widened during the intraday rally, signaling rising volatility, but the price has since retracted toward the mid-band.

Volume and Divergence

Volume spikes were observed during the 16:30–17:00 ET rally, with the highest turnover at $1.914–1.908, though this was followed by bearish volume during the 17:00–17:45 ET pullback. Notional turnover diverged from price during the late-day correction, suggesting uneven buying pressure.

Patterns and Retracement Levels

A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $1.885–1.887, indicating potential short-term bearish bias. Fibonacci retracements suggest a 38.2% level at $1.896 and a key 61.8% level at $1.877 as potential support clusters. A test of the $1.86–1.87 area is likely if the 20SMA is breached.

Price may remain range-bound in the short term, with a possible retest of support at $1.86–1.87. Traders should monitor the 50-period MA for signs of bullish re-entry, but volatility remains elevated, posing increased downside risk over the next 24 hours.