Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from 1.964 to 1.914 over 24 hours, showing bearish momentum.
• High volume observed during the late ET sell-off, particularly below 1.920.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions but bearish divergence remains.
• Bollinger Bands suggest tightening volatility before a potential breakout.
• Key resistance at 1.968 and support at 1.920 remain critical for near-term direction.

Opening at 1.963 at 12:00 ET–1, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) fell to a low of 1.914 over the next 24 hours before closing at 1.914 as of 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 1.914 and 1.968, with total volume of 3,634,514.65 and turnover of 6,905,804.35. The price action suggests bearish continuation with oversold momentum indicators and key levels defining potential for a rebound or further decline.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern as it broke down from key resistance at 1.920, now acting as a dynamic support level. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 1.948 to 1.923, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key levels at 1.968 (resistance) and 1.920 (support) appear to be defining the current range. A failure to retest 1.920 could lead to further downside toward 1.905, where early Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential for a bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price is below both the 20 and 50 EMA lines, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, price is below the 50, 100, and 200 EMA, indicating a broader downtrend. The convergence of the 20 and 50 EMA on shorter timeframes suggests the bearish trend is intact and could persist in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has contracted into negative territory, confirming the bearish bias. RSI is in oversold territory at 27, but without a reversal confirmation, it suggests further downside could occur. A potential bullish divergence may emerge if the RSI rises while price continues to fall below 1.920, but current conditions support the continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly as price moved from the upper to the lower band, indicating a sharp correction. The bands are now wider, reflecting increased uncertainty. Price is currently near the lower band, which could trigger a short-term bounce. However, a sustained close below 1.920 may force the lower band to drift further downward, supporting bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late ET sell-off, particularly between 1.930 and 1.914, suggesting strong bearish conviction. Turnover increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the sell-off. Price and turnover are aligned, showing no divergence, which supports the continuation of the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from 1.968 to 1.914, key levels at 1.949 (38.2%), 1.937 (50%), and 1.925 (61.8%) are critical for near-term price direction. Price appears to be targeting the 61.8% level at 1.925, with a possible bounce or further decline depending on the strength of buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of bearish strategies based on candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) and price behavior around key levels like 1.968 could offer valuable insights. The strategy requires clarification on the exact TONUSDT ticker and the exit rule—whether to close a short as soon as price drops below 1.968 or only after a retest above it. Once defined, the backtest can assess hit ratio, returns, and risk metrics over historical data since 2022.