Market Overview: Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) – 24-Hour Price and Technical Behavior

• Price action shows a volatile 24-hour range between 2.81 and 2.878 with bearish bias in the last 6 hours.
• Strong volume spikes in the 17:15–17:30 ET window suggest a key distribution period.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum and potential short-term overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion as volatility rises post-21:00 ET.
• On-balance volume confirms price weakness in the final 4 hours of the cycle.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 2.831 and traded within a 24-hour range of 2.81 to 2.878. The pair closed at 2.80, with total volume of 9,024,958.85 and a notional turnover of approximately $24,823,415.55. The price action has shown a bearish bias in the final 6 hours, with key volume spikes and distribution patterns emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong resistance at 2.878 and retested support at 2.81, forming a key consolidation pattern over the past 12 hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 21:30–21:45 ET, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, a doji at 08:45–09:00 ET indicated indecision, followed by a breakdown below 2.82. The 2.85–2.86 zone appears to be a critical pivot for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover late in the session. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA appears to be acting as resistance near 2.84, with the 100- and 200-period MAs further reinforcing this bearish structure. These signals suggest that TONUSDT may remain under downward pressure unless a strong reversal emerges above 2.85.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the 04:30–04:45 ET window, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI reached overbought territory briefly at 2.878 but quickly retraced into neutral to oversold levels by 10:00 ET. This suggests a potential reversal could be near, though a strong bullish confirmation is yet to emerge.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion starting at 21:00 ET, aligning with increased price volatility. The price currently resides just above the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition. A retest of the 2.79–2.80 zone could trigger a rebound, but a break below this would extend the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 17:15–17:30 ET window, coinciding with a price high at 2.878. This distribution pattern suggests significant selling pressure and potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Turnover has declined steadily since 09:00 ET, though volume has picked up again in the final 4 hours, indicating renewed bearish activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing high at 2.878 and low at 2.81, key levels appear at 2.847 (38.2%), 2.835 (50%), and 2.824 (61.8%). The current price is near the 2.82–2.83 range, suggesting a potential support zone. A break below 2.81 would test the 2.79–2.80 level, a critical psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading hypothesis involves entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 2.824, with a stop loss placed just below 2.81 and a target at 2.85–2.86. This strategy assumes a bounce from the oversold RSI and a potential reversal above the 50-period MA. Given the current structure and volume profile, this setup appears plausible but should be confirmed with fresh price action and divergence signals in the next 24 hours. The MACD and RSI would act as key confirmatory indicators for this setup.