Market Overview: Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) - 24-Hour Price Action

• Price fell from 3.109 to 3.070, closing near the 24-hour low.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum with no signs of reversal.
• High volume confirmed the downtrend, especially after 22:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands constricted in early hours, followed by a break to the downside.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.090 and 3.082 provided temporary resistance.

24-Hour Price Summary

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $3.106 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and traded between $3.109 and $3.067 over the next 24 hours, closing at $3.070 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 983,251.65, with a notional turnover of $3,078,954.43. The pair has shown a consistent bearish bias in the last 12 hours of trading.

Structure & Formations

Price has shown a clear bearish bias over the last 12 hours, with the 3.105–3.106 level acting as a key resistance zone that failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:15 ET, followed by a series of lower closes. The price has since consolidated in a descending channel, with the 3.082–3.085 level acting as a short-term support area. A doji formed at 09:00 ET on 2025-09-21, indicating a temporary pause in the bearish momentum but not a reversal.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, indicating a broader bearish bias. The 50-period line at ~3.092 has acted as resistance multiple times during the 24-hour window.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover occurring around 18:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The RSI has been in oversold territory (below 30) for over 8 hours, but this has not triggered any meaningful rebound in price. A bearish divergence is visible in the last 4 hours, with the RSI making higher lows while price makes lower ones, signaling exhaustion in the bullish side.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low between 12:00 and 20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands narrowing. However, price broke down below the lower band at 22:00 ET, indicating a breakout to the downside. The current price sits within the lower third of the bands, suggesting that the bearish move has room to extend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked between 22:00 and 23:30 ET, confirming the breakdown and the move toward 3.070. Notably, the volume during this period exceeded the average 15-minute volume by 2–3 times, indicating strong bearish conviction. The price and turnover are in alignment, suggesting a genuine bearish move rather than a washout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 3.104 to 3.077 swing show key levels at 3.090 (38.2%), 3.082 (61.8%), and 3.074 (78.6%). The price has tested 3.082 and 3.074 as support, with mixed results. The 61.8% level at 3.082 is the most immediate support to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying key support levels (e.g., 3.082–3.085) and entering a short position after a rejection from these levels, confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern and a RSI divergence. Stops could be placed above the 50-period moving average (~3.092), with a target at 3.065–3.067. This approach could be optimized for low-latency execution in high-volume environments, as seen in the last 6 hours of this 24-hour period.