Market Overview: Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from $3.126 to $3.086, breaching key support levels with bearish confirmation.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off but failed to support a rebound, indicating weak follow-through demand.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce but bearish momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands contracted before expanding, reflecting increased volatility amid uncertain directional bias.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.101 and 3.106 were key pivot points during the 24-hour session.

Opening Snapshot

At 12:00 ET – 1, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $3.116, reached a high of $3.127, and closed at $3.093 by 12:00 ET. The pair fell to a low of $3.086. Total volume was 4,623,853.87 TON and total turnover was $14,411,228.93. This data reflects a bearish 24-hour trend with increased volatility and potential for further downward movement.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key support levels at $3.113 and $3.101, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed at 09:00000 ET on the 15-minute chart. A doji appeared near $3.093, signaling indecision. The most recent bullish candle at $3.095 failed to close above the previous high, indicating bearish exhaustion is likely not yet complete.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearishly aligned, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line. The MACD crossed into negative territory with bearish divergence, and the RSI hit oversold levels (below 30), suggesting a potential bounce from $3.086 to $3.101 may occur, but momentum remains weak.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion as volatility increased after 02:00000 ET. Price spent much of the session in the lower half of the bands, confirming bearish bias. A breakout above the upper band at $3.108 would require strong volume to be meaningful.

Volume & Turnover Insights

Volume surged to $4.9 million during the price drop at 23:30000 ET, confirming bearish sentiment. However, subsequent volume remained muted despite price bouncing to $3.108. Notional turnover was higher during the sell-off than the rebound, indicating that the rally lacked buying conviction. Divergence between volume and price may signal a deeper correction ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% ($3.101) and 61.8% ($3.096) acted as temporary support, but failed to halt the decline. The 50% retracement level at $3.105 became a resistance during the rebound. These levels may retest in the next 24 hours as price consolidates.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves a short entry when price closes below the 20-period moving average with high volume and RSI below 30, followed by a stop-loss above the recent swing high. A target could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the next key support. This setup appears viable in the current context but should be tested with historical data for accuracy.