Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-10-29

• TONUSDT fell sharply after midday ET on October 28, hitting a 24-hour low of $2.211 before consolidating.
• Price found temporary support around $2.21–2.22 before rebounding into a mixed consolidation phase.
• Volatility and volume spiked during the decline, but waned after $2.215 as buyers reentered.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, indicating a possible near-term bounce, though momentum remains weak.
• A breakout above $2.275 may signal resumption of upward bias, but bears appear in control for now.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.264 on October 29 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $2.309 and a low of $2.205 over the 24-hour period. The pair closed at $2.208 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total traded volume amounted to 5.5 million TON with a notional turnover of approximately $12.2 million. A sharp decline and a subsequent failed rally defined the session, with key support and resistance levels becoming evident.

Structure & Formations

Price declined from a short-term high of $2.309 to $2.205, forming a bearish channel that appeared to confirm the dominance of sellers. A double bottom emerged near the $2.21–2.22 level, suggesting a temporary stabilizing effect. While the structure does not yet confirm a major reversal, the price may find near-term support at $2.21 and face resistance at $2.275. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the early phase of the decline, reinforcing the downward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, confirming the downward pressure. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-period moving averages have crossed bearishly, signaling a longer-term trend that favors bears. The 200-period MA provides a key baseline to watch for a potential rebound, currently at $2.23–2.24.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the decline, with the histogram shrinking as volume waned. RSI entered oversold territory near 28 before a minor bounce, suggesting the pair may be due for a short-term rebound. However, the lack of sustained momentum in the RSI and MACD indicates a cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the lower Bollinger Band dropping to $2.205. Price action has since consolidated within the bands, with the middle band currently at $2.255. The narrowing of bands in the final hours suggests reduced volatility, possibly ahead of a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume and turnover surged during the early part of the decline, with a large 15-minute candle at $2.215 confirming a key level. However, volume has tailed off in the consolidation phase, indicating weaker follow-through from sellers. This divergence between volume and price may signal a short-term bottoming process, though buyers have yet to show decisive strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent $2.309–$2.205 swing, the 38.2% level at $2.245 and the 61.8% at $2.255 appear to be critical. Price has consolidated near the 61.8% level but failed to break through the 38.2% level on multiple attempts. A move above $2.245 could signal a bearish exhaustion, but a failure to hold above $2.23 may reinforce the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

To ensure the accuracy of any backtest strategy, it is essential to confirm the correct exchange and ticker symbol, as the initial data request failed due to missing metadata. Additionally, verifying the earliest available date with continuous daily price data for TONUSDT is crucial to avoid gaps. Once the correct ticker and timeframe are established, a backtest can be run using the technical patterns identified—such as Fibonacci retracements, volume divergences, and key moving average crossovers—to assess the predictive power of the observed structure. This will help determine the viability of the strategy in real-world conditions.