Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) as of 2025-10-22

• TONUSDT fell from $2.318 to $2.123 intraday but closed near $2.143, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked after 17:00 ET, with a 5.1% drop into $2.14, and volume surged to $164,202.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $2.242, suggesting short-term weakness ahead.
• Price remains below 20- and 50-period SMAs on 15-min data, signaling continued bearish bias.
• Turnover expanded in the late night session, but price failed to retest key resistance at $2.25.

24-Hour Price and Volume Summary

At 12:00 ET on October 22, 2025, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.305 and closed at $2.143 after a session low of $2.123 and high of $2.318. Total 24-hour volume was 3.95 million coins, with a notional turnover of $8.53 million. The pair has experienced a volatile pullback, with bearish momentum dominating the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish tilt, especially after 17:00 ET, when a sharp drop of 5.1% brought the pair to a session low of $2.123. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $2.242 level, with the next candle closing at $2.234, confirming a key breakdown. A doji appeared near $2.14, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the decline. Key support levels include $2.123, $2.13, and $2.115, while resistance levels sit at $2.149, $2.156, and $2.174.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, TONUSDT has remained below both the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period SMA is currently at ~$2.16, and the 20-period SMA at ~$2.17, both acting as dynamic resistance. The MACD (12, 26, 9) turned negative in the late night session, with the histogram expanding as bearish momentum gathered. A potential crossover below the signal line could increase the likelihood of a deeper pullback toward $2.115.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI-14 fell into oversold territory in the early morning session, dropping to ~28 after the sharp selloff from $2.28. This suggests potential short-term reversal could emerge if buyers return to the $2.12–$2.14 range. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 17:00 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price has since tested the lower band multiple times, suggesting a potential bounce if buyers step in at the 2.123 level.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged to $164,202 at 17:00 ET during the largest 15-minute drop, confirming the move lower. However, price failed to make a strong rebound afterward, even with continued turnover above $40k in most hours. The divergence between price and volume in the $2.13–$2.14 range raises questions about the strength of the current rally attempt. A breakdown below $2.123 could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders if short-term support fails to hold.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute move from $2.318 to $2.123, key retracement levels include:- 23.6% at $2.245
- 38.2% at $2.206
- 50% at $2.181
- 61.8% at $2.157
Price has tested the 50% and 61.8% levels and is currently consolidating near $2.143. A break above $2.149 could target the 61.8% level again, though a failure to sustain above $2.157 may signal a return to the lower range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The current data limitations for TONUSDT prevent a full backtest using RSI-14. However, the narrative highlights potential entry levels near $2.123 (Fibonacci 100%) and $2.14 (RSI oversold zone), which could be used for a hypothetical strategy. A backtest using a custom RSI-14 and 3-day hold logic could be implemented if historical TONUSDT data in JSON or CSV format is provided. This would allow for a tailored strategy testing on price rejections from key support levels and RSI divergence cues.