Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• Price surged from $2.27 to $2.36 before retracting to $2.20–$2.25 by the close.
• High volatility seen in early hours with a 9.5% pullback in 12 hours.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but faded during the retest.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions at peak; now in neutral to oversold.
• Key support and resistance levels defined using Fibonacci and moving averages.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.27 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and peaked at $2.36 before retreating to a 24-hour low of $2.164. The pair closed at $2.294 as of 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 12.8 million tokens, with a notional turnover of $28.7 million. The price movement reflected early bullish momentum, followed by a retracement that tested key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish breakout above the 2.30 resistance cluster before encountering a bearish reversal pattern around 2.35. A key support level was identified at $2.217, where the price found temporary stability. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 2.35–2.36 level, suggesting a risk of further retracement. Additionally, a doji appeared at $2.36, indicating indecision among traders after the initial surge.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, with the 20-period line crossing above the 50-period line in the morning hours. This golden cross was followed by a bearish crossover in the late afternoon, signaling increased volatility. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed above $2.25, indicating that the 24-hour drop brought the price closer to a key medium-term support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish signal during the early hours, with the histogram peaking at 0.022 before diverging into negative territory. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the peak, but fell back to around 50 by the close. This suggests that the initial bullish momentum has subsided, and the market may be preparing for a period of consolidation or a new bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bullish phase, with the price moving above the upper band for several hours. This was followed by a contraction into the lower half of the bands, where the price currently resides. The current location near the lower band may suggest oversold conditions and a potential bounce, but with the RSI not confirming overbought/oversold levels, this should be interpreted cautiously.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early hours, peaking at over 500,000 tokens, during the bullish breakout. As the price corrected, volume declined significantly, indicating reduced conviction in the bearish move. A divergence emerged between price and volume as the price dropped below $2.25 but failed to see a new volume spike, suggesting a possible reversal. Total turnover remained relatively stable, despite the large price swing.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the early morning rally is located around $2.29, which aligns with the 15-minute close of $2.294. This suggests the current retest is within a defined retracement range and could provide a short-term floor if buyers step in. The 38.2% level at $2.34 coincided with the bearish reversal pattern, indicating a potential zone for renewed selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The "Bearish Engulfing" candlestick pattern, though not directly observable in the provided data, is often used to identify potential reversal points in bullish trends. A backtest could be designed to test the efficacy of shorting the pair after a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern occurs, using the 3-day close as a target and stop-loss levels based on recent volatility and Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy would align with the observed bearish reversal and doji patterns in the recent swing high of $2.36.