Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) – 2025-10-10

• Price rose from $2.68 to $2.74 before correcting to $2.69, suggesting a test of upper resistance.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions midday, followed by momentum divergence.
• Volatility expanded between 18:00 and 21:00 ET as price traded within Bollinger bands.
• Volume surged during the consolidation phase, confirming support near $2.69.
• Fibonacci retracement levels indicated potential for further consolidation or a rebound above $2.72.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.692 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.746, and closed at $2.69 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 11,481,816.61, and notional turnover reached $30,747,563.37 over the 24-hour window. The pair tested key resistance levels before retreating, with notable volume accumulation near $2.69.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a bullish engulfing pattern between 19:30 and 20:00 ET as it broke above $2.72, but a bearish divergence in the RSI followed. A doji formed at 03:15 ET near $2.746, suggesting indecision at recent highs. A clear rejection above $2.746 was evident from 04:15 to 06:00 ET, with price retreating into a consolidation phase. Key support levels appear at $2.715 and $2.695, with the 24-hour low touching $2.63 briefly.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above price by 21:00 ET, confirming the bullish bias until 06:00 ET, after which the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, signaling weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $2.698, indicating that the asset may continue to consolidate within the $2.69–$2.72 range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed positive divergence between 19:30 and 20:00 ET before turning negative as bearish momentum took hold. The RSI peaked at 73 near $2.746 and declined to 52, indicating a shift in sentiment. A bearish crossover occurred around 04:00 ET, aligning with the price pullback. These readings suggest the market could remain in a tight range in the near term, with overbought and oversold risks balanced.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price traded between the upper and lower bands during the late evening and early morning hours, with a temporary contraction observed between 06:00 and 08:00 ET. Price remained within the band most of the session, with occasional touchpoints near the upper band indicating resistance. The relative positioning of price within the band suggests mixed volatility expectations for the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.148 million contracts at 15:45 ET as price dropped from $2.738 to $2.685, coinciding with a bearish candle. Notional turnover mirrored this spike, reaching $2.97 million. However, a divergence emerged after 18:00 ET, where volume declined while price remained in a range. This suggests that the recent move may not be driven by strong conviction, and a follow-through move could require increased volume confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 24-hour swing from $2.63 to $2.746 saw key retracement levels at 38.2% ($2.704), 50% ($2.688), and 61.8% ($2.672). Price retested the 38.2% and 50% levels multiple times during the consolidation phase. A break above 38.2% could reinvigorate the bullish bias, while a close below 50% may signal deeper correction potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent overbought RSI divergence and bearish MACD crossover, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at $2.725 with a stop-loss above $2.745 and a target at $2.695. This setup would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum observed from 04:00 to 06:00 ET. The volume contraction during the consolidation phase suggests a reduced likelihood of strong follow-through, making this a medium-risk, medium-reward short-term play that aligns with the current technical indicators.