Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of $2.716 before closing near key support.
• Volatility remained elevated with a 1.4% range and volume surging to $3.7 million.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, while MACD hints at a potential near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during consolidation, followed by a downward break.
• Fibonacci levels at $2.735 and $2.713 may offer critical support/resistance in the near term.

The 24-hour session for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) saw a strong decline, opening at $2.775 and reaching a high of $2.802 before closing at $2.716 by 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of approximately 2.7 million units and a turnover of $7.4 million. Price moved through several key support and resistance levels, including a breakdown below the 2.72 psychological mark.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several bearish formations, including a long lower shadow at the 160000 candle and a potential bearish engulfing pattern between the 181500 and 183000 candles. A significant bear trap was evident as buyers pushed price up toward 2.793 before it collapsed again. Key support levels observed include $2.735 (61.8% Fib) and $2.713 (38.2% Fib). Resistance remains at $2.75 and $2.78.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are aligned, with TONUSDT currently below both, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend unless it retests and holds above the 2.75 level.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential bounce near the $2.716 level. However, the MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram declining in the last few hours, which indicates that bearish momentum remains strong despite the oversold reading. A divergence between RSI and price may signal a short-term reversal, but it is still too early to confirm.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply as the Bollinger Bands expanded from a narrow range early in the session to a wide spread by the morning. Price broke below the lower band during the early afternoon (16:00–18:00 ET), a bearish signal that aligns with the breakdown in price and volume spikes during that period. The bands have since remained wide, reflecting continued uncertainty and a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover both surged in the late afternoon, especially around 16:00 and 18:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown below key support levels. However, a divergence appears in the evening, where volume dipped despite price remaining in a downward trend. This may indicate waning conviction among sellers, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation or reversal if buyers can push the price back above the 2.73 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 2.802 to 2.716, key levels include 38.2% at $2.762 and 61.8% at $2.735. The price found some temporary support at the 61.8% level before breaking down again. On a daily chart, retracements from the recent high of 2.802 to the low of 2.716 also align with the 2.73 and 2.76 levels, reinforcing the importance of these levels for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and the alignment of key Fibonacci and moving average levels, a potential backtest strategy would involve placing a sell stop just below the 2.735 level with a target at 2.713 (next Fibonacci support) and a stop-loss above 2.75. This approach leverages the confirmed breakdown below critical support levels and the strong MACD signal. A long entry could also be considered at the 2.716–2.72 zone if RSI confirms a bounce with volume support.