Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) - 2025-09-25

• Price declined from $2.84 to $2.76, with key support near $2.76 and resistance at $2.83.
• Volume surged during the breakdown below $2.80, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI oversold at 30 and MACD bearish crossover suggest potential short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands widening, signaling possible consolidation.
• Turnover spiked during sharp declines, aligning with price action for bearish confirmation.

The 24-hour chart for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) showed a bearish shift, with the price opening at $2.84 and closing at $2.76 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The high reached $2.84, while the low hit $2.753, with the total volume amounting to 5,036,088.03 and total turnover at $14,291,798.28. The price action reflects a weakening trend amid heightened volatility and bearish momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish breakdown below the $2.80 support level, forming a engulfing bearish pattern around $2.81–2.82. A doji appeared near $2.79, signaling indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels are now $2.76 and $2.74, while resistance remains at $2.83–2.84. A retest of these levels is likely in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA is bearish below the 50SMA, confirming a downtrend. The 50SMA has crossed below the 100SMA and 200SMA, forming a death cross in the broader context. This suggests continued bearish pressure and higher probability of consolidation below current levels before a potential bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the sharp drop from $2.83 to $2.76, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory at ~30, suggesting a possible short-term rebound but not a full reversal. A break above 2.80 would be needed to confirm a bullish follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened, indicating increased volatility over the last 24 hours. Price has traded near the lower band for much of the session, suggesting a strong bearish bias. A close above the middle band would be a sign of renewed strength, though it remains unlikely given current momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the decline below $2.80, reaching a peak of 260,535.36 at 12:30 ET, confirming the breakdown with strong conviction. Turnover also spiked in tandem with the bearish price moves. Price and turnover are aligned, supporting the bearish narrative without divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $2.84–2.76 move, key levels are $2.80 (38.2%), $2.78 (50%), and $2.77 (61.8%). These levels may serve as short-term retest points. A breakdown below $2.76 could target $2.74–2.75, aligning with the next Fibonacci extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy leverages a breakdown below key support levels, followed by a RSI oversold trigger and a MACD bearish crossover to enter a short position. The target is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline as a potential exit point. Given the strong alignment of volume, price, and technical indicators, this approach could be effective for a short-term bearish trade, with $2.80 acting as a stop-loss level.