Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT): 2025-09-24

• TONUSDT opened at $2.828 and closed at $2.832, with a 24-hour high of $2.848 and low of $2.771.
• Price declined after a sharp selloff from 04:15 ET but stabilized and regained most of the losses by 15:00 ET.
• RSI moved into overbought territory near the 24-hour high, suggesting potential for near-term profit-taking.
• Volatility was elevated during the early hours, with volume peaking at $311,200.14 during the drop to $2.793.
• Key support at $2.800–2.805 held, and price retested it multiple times before resuming higher.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.828 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at $2.832 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached $2.848, and the low touched $2.771. The total volume traded over the past 24 hours amounted to 2,898,027.47, while the notional turnover (amount traded in USD) was approximately $8,212,467. Price action showed clear bearish breakdown and bullish rebound phases, with notable volume spikes aligning with key turning points.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $2.816 and a bullish engulfing pattern around $2.823. A key support level appears to be forming near $2.800–2.805, where price found strong buying interest. Resistance levels are currently at $2.835 and $2.848, with the latter acting as a recent high. A potential consolidation triangle is forming above $2.825, suggesting a possible breakout to the upside if the $2.835 level is cleared.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed above price near $2.83–2.835, suggesting a potential resumption of bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $2.822, the 100-period SMA at $2.816, and the 200-period SMA at $2.803, indicating a slightly bullish bias as price sits above the 200-day line. The MACD remained in bullish territory in the later part of the session, with a narrowing histogram suggesting possible exhaustion in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff in the early hours, with price hitting the lower band around $2.793 before rebounding. After the 15:00 ET rebound, price remained within the upper and middle bands, indicating reduced volatility but a continuation of bullish momentum. A contraction in Bollinger Band width is emerging, which could suggest a potential breakout or breakdown in the near future.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff between 04:15 ET and 04:45 ET, with the largest volume spike at $2.793 (over $311,200.14). A divergence between price and volume occurred around 05:15 ET when price started to rise but volume dropped, suggesting short-term caution. Turnover confirmed the selloff and the subsequent rebound, with a strong notional increase during the 15:00 ET rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing low ($2.771) to high ($2.848), the 61.8% level is at $2.822 and the 50% level at $2.810. Price has tested and bounced off the 61.8% retracement level in recent hours, indicating strong support. On the 15-minute chart, a smaller retracement from $2.804 to $2.832 shows the 38.2% level at $2.819 and the 61.8% at $2.826, both of which were tested during the consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the structure of the recent move, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on long entries following a bullish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci and moving average support levels (e.g., $2.805–2.810). A stop-loss could be placed below $2.800, and a take-profit aligned with the 61.8% retracement at $2.826. Short-term traders might consider shorting near $2.835–2.840 if a bearish reversal candlestick forms with increasing volume. The strategy should be tested across multiple timeframes and adjusted for volatility expansion and contraction phases.