Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• TONUSDT opened at $2.833, dropped to $2.754, and closed at $2.825, showing a volatile but ultimately sideways 24-hour session.
• A notable bearish gap formed around $2.771, followed by a recovery attempt which stalled near $2.833.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a 2.3% range before stabilizing, and volume surged past 329,000 during the recovery phase.
• RSI hovered in overbought and oversold zones, suggesting indecision, while MACD remained near zero, indicating weak momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed price near the midline at the close, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Overview and Key Data

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.833 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and traded as low as $2.754 before closing at $2.825 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The price action was marked by volatility, reaching a high of $2.839. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 4,504,600 TON coins, with a notional turnover of approximately $12.77 million (based on mid-range prices), indicating active trading and mixed sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a key bearish gap around $2.771, which was partially filled before a rally attempted to push back above $2.833. A long upper shadow on the candle closing near $2.825 suggests rejection at higher levels. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the recovery phase, but it was followed by a long upper wick on the next candle, indicating possible profit-taking. Key support levels appear to form near $2.77 and $2.75, while resistance holds at $2.825 and $2.833, which may be watched for directional bias.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, TONUSDT closed just above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, both hovering near $2.82, suggesting short-term momentum is neutral. The 50-period line appears to act as a dynamic support level during the consolidation phase. On a daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are expected to congregate near $2.81, indicating a potential equilibrium zone.

MACD remains near the zero line, with the histogram showing mixed divergence. The RSI oscillated between 30 and 70, spending equal time in overbought and oversold ranges, which is consistent with range-bound trading. While momentum appears to be waning, there are no clear signs of a breakdown or breakout yet.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded mid-session, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price traded near the upper band during the midday rally, reaching a high of $2.839, but then collapsed back into the central band at the close. The contraction that followed suggests a potential shift back to consolidation. Traders may watch for a retest of the 20-period EMA as a potential trigger for renewed volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the recovery phase, particularly in the 15-minute candle ending at $2.826, which recorded a volume of 273,826 TON and was the highest of the day. This volume confirmed the bullish candle and showed conviction. However, the subsequent candle had a weaker close despite continued volume, signaling possible exhaustion. Notional turnover also peaked at the same point, aligning with price and volume, suggesting a coordinated move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing from $2.754 to $2.839 shows key levels at 23.6% (~$2.795), 38.2% (~$2.809), 50% (~$2.796), 61.8% (~$2.823), and 78.6% (~$2.834). The recent close of $2.825 aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement level, which could act as a key support/resistance if the trend continues to consolidate. The 78.6% level coincides with the high of $2.833, which appears to be a psychological barrier for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy utilizing a 20-period and 50-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart could offer a potential edge during consolidation phases like the one observed. Long entries would be triggered when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA, with a stop-loss just below the nearest support or the 20 EMA itself. A trailing stop or a fixed 2% exit would be used for profit-taking. Given the recent convergence of EMAs and the consolidation phase, the strategy may now be in a low-signal, high-risk environment. Traders should consider using the 61.8% Fib level as a dynamic target while monitoring volume for confirmation of any breakout.