Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• Price dropped to 2.961 during the early hours of the 24-hour period, recovering to close near 2.82 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bearish momentum in the first half of the day, with a sell-off accelerating from 00:45 ET.
• High volatility observed with Bollinger Band expansion, signaling potential directionality.
• Volume spiked during the early morning sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI and MACD suggest overextended short-term bearishness, with potential for near-term stabilization.

At 12:00 ET − 1, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 3.063 and reached a high of 3.081 before falling to a low of 2.581 during the 24-hour window. At 12:00 ET, the price closed at 2.82. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 15.3 million units, with notional turnover reaching $43.1 million.

The price action on TONUSDT over the past 24 hours has shown a distinct bearish bias, particularly from early morning into midday. A sharp decline from 3.069 at 00:45 ET to 2.975 by 02:45 ET marked the start of a broader distribution phase. The market appears to have found temporary support near 2.961 and 2.85, with resistance levels forming around 3.05–3.07. A long lower shadow on the candle closing at 02:45 ET indicates a possible rejection of lower levels, but the formation is incomplete without confirmation on follow-through buying.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period line (2.837) and 50-period line (2.849) both trending downward, suggesting continued bearish pressure. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is at 2.89, while the 200-period MA sits at 2.95, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. The RSI has fallen below 30, signaling oversold conditions, though this does not guarantee an immediate reversal. MACD remains negative, with the histogram diverging from the price, indicating weakening bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the price dropping below the 20-period lower band by early morning. This expansion reflects heightened volatility and a potential increase in directional bias. Volume surged during the morning selloff, particularly on the 00:45 ET candle, where a massive 533,780.3 units were traded. Notional turnover followed the same trend, confirming bearish conviction. A price-volume divergence emerges in the afternoon, with volume declining while the price continues to consolidate near 2.82, suggesting a possible short-term equilibrium.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 09:45 ET swing (2.82–2.82) and the broader daily move (3.08–2.581) show key levels at 38.2% (2.76) and 61.8% (2.64). A retest of the 2.76 level appears likely, but a break below 2.64 would indicate a deeper bearish trend.

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach using the RSI and 20-period Bollinger Bands. Triggers include RSI below 30 and a price near the lower Bollinger Band, followed by a reversal signal when RSI crosses back above 30 or a bullish candle closes above the 20-period MA. Given the current RSI oversold condition and price near the lower band, this strategy may have generated a buy signal in the afternoon. The strategy would have entered long at 2.82–2.83 with a stop loss below 2.78 and a take profit at 2.87–2.89. This approach appears viable for TONUSDT in a low-volatility environment but may underperform during strong bearish trends.