Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT): 2025-09-19 12:00 ET

• Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $3.098–$3.196, closing near the session low.
• The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $3.188–$3.175, signaling potential short-term bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after 00:45 ET, with price surging to $3.196, supported by a volume spike of 197,266.95.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions at the peak before turning neutral, indicating a potential reversal.
• Fibonacci levels at $3.156 (38.2%) and $3.134 (61.8%) could be critical for near-term support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $3.158, reaching a high of $3.196 and a low of $3.098, before closing at $3.122. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 1.46 million, with a notional turnover of $4.63 million. The pair showed bearish divergence late in the session, as the price closed below mid-range after a bullish push from 00:45–02:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a bearish engulfing candle at $3.188–$3.175, formed around 01:45 ET, suggesting a shift in control from buyers to sellers. A doji candle appeared at $3.183–$3.183 around 02:15 ET, indicating indecision. The most recent bullish thrust to $3.196 failed to hold, suggesting that resistance at $3.196–$3.188 may remain intact for now. Key support levels include $3.156 (38.2%), $3.134 (61.8%), and $3.120, with the latter offering a critical floor if the pullback continues.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA (3.171) crossed below the 50 EMA (3.176), forming a death cross and reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI briefly reached 78 around 02:00 ET, signaling overbought conditions, but has since fallen below 50, suggesting a potential reversal. MACD turned negative post-03:45 ET, confirming a bearish bias. For daily charts, the 50 SMA is at 3.150, with the 200 SMA at 3.135, forming a bearish alignment if price fails to reclaim these levels.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction around 23:45–00:15 ET, followed by a volatility expansion as price surged past the upper band to $3.196. The current price of $3.122 is now sitting near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions. A retest of the 20-period MA at 3.171 could trigger a rebound, but until that happens, the bearish trend remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the bullish move to $3.196, with a 15-minute candle recording 197,266.95 volume units, but has since dropped to average levels. Notional turnover peaked at $1.3 million during this period, showing conviction behind the move. The current pullback has seen lower volume, suggesting a lack of follow-through from bears. However, a break below $3.120 with increased volume could confirm a bearish trend continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from $3.098 to $3.196 has retraced to $3.156 (38.2%) and is currently consolidating near $3.134 (61.8%). These levels could provide tactical support or resistance in the next 24 hours. A break below $3.134 could target $3.118 (78.6%), while a retest above $3.156 may see a short-term rally toward the $3.170–$3.180 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and divergence in RSI and MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short position triggered upon a close below the 15-minute 20 EMA (3.171), with a take-profit at $3.120–$3.118 and a stop-loss at $3.176 to limit risk. This approach would align with the bearish momentum seen in the last 12 hours, while Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band behavior could be used for dynamic trailing stops. The strategy should be tested over multiple 15-minute swings, incorporating volume divergence as a confirmation signal.