Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• TONUSDT opened at $3.107 and closed at $3.154, with a 24-hour range from $3.062 to $3.161.
• A strong bearish reversal pattern was seen in the early session, followed by a sustained recovery in the latter half.
• RSI showed overbought conditions near the close, while volume and turnover spiked during the key upward moves.
• Price remained above its 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, suggesting bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the day’s high volatility, with price closing near the upper band.

The Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) pair opened at $3.107 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $3.154 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour range was between $3.062 and $3.161, with the price showing a net upward bias despite early bearish pressure. Total trading volume for the period was 189,166.91 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $593,582.66.

The 15-minute chart shows a key reversal from a bearish engulfing pattern at 16:15 ET, followed by a recovery phase marked by several bullish signals. A bullish breakout above key resistance levels at $3.14 and $3.15 confirmed a shift in sentiment. On the other hand, support levels at $3.08 and $3.06 held firm during the earlier bearish phase. The 20-period moving average (20 MA) crossed above the 50-period MA (50 MA) in the late afternoon, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum.

MACD turned positive in the late afternoon and remained above its signal line through the close, reinforcing the upward bias. The RSI reached overbought territory near the close (above 70), suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead. Bollinger Bands expanded during the day, reflecting heightened volatility, with the closing price sitting near the upper band. The price is currently above both the 20 MA and 50 MA, with a positive slope suggesting a continuation of the trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key low at $3.062 and high at $3.161 show the price closing near the 61.8% retracement level at $3.154. This suggests a potential pause in the upward trend unless the price clears the 78.6% retracement level at $3.175. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels from a minor pullback at $3.08 and rally to $3.146 show the price holding above the 38.2% level, indicating short-term bullish sentiment.

The forward-looking view for TONUSDT suggests that if the price holds above $3.13 (support) and the 50 MA, the bullish bias remains intact. A break above $3.16 could signal a push toward $3.18, but traders should watch for overbought RSI and potential divergence between price and volume as a caution against a sharp reversal. A failure to hold above $3.10 could re-introduce bearish momentum, particularly if volume increases on the downside.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price breaks above the 50 MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover and volume expansion. Stops could be placed just below the previous swing low, with targets aligned to Fibonacci levels at $3.16 and $3.18. This setup has high probability during strong upward momentum but should be avoided if RSI exceeds 80 or if volume diverges from price action, signaling exhaustion.