Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) - 2025-09-15

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• Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) closed higher at $3.19 after a 1.8% rally from $3.14 amid a volume surge in late ET.
• A bullish breakout above $3.19 was confirmed with strong volume and positive MACD divergence.
• RSI entered overbought territory (74), but price remains above 20-period SMA, suggesting momentum may persist.

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Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $3.14 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.19 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-15, reaching a high of $3.22 and a low of $3.14. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1,606,000 units, with a notional turnover of around $5,070,000.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a clear bullish trend from the 5.5% pullback at $3.14 to the high of $3.22. A series of bullish engulfing patterns formed in the late ET hours (03:30–05:30 ET), signaling aggressive buying pressure. A key support level emerged at $3.18–$3.19, which was tested and held four times, forming a psychological floor. A bearish doji appeared briefly at $3.22 in the early hours of the morning, indicating momentary indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained above both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, with the 50-period line rising steeply into the $3.19–$3.20 range. This suggests that momentum remains in favor of the bulls. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is currently at $3.17 and is being approached from below, indicating a potential retest of the $3.18–$3.19 zone could see further bullish continuation if the 50-period line is taken out.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line on the 15-minute chart has remained above the signal line for most of the session, with a bullish crossover forming around 03:30 ET. The histogram expanded after the $3.20 retest, reinforcing the positive momentum. RSI reached overbought levels of 74, but it has not shown signs of divergence, which may suggest that the rally could continue. If RSI dips below 60 without a pullback, it could signal exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the final 10 hours of the session as price pushed above the upper Bollinger Band at $3.20 and traded within a $3.19–$3.22 range. The bands were relatively narrow in the morning session (before 11:00 ET) suggesting a period of consolidation. Price closed near the upper band, indicating strong buyer control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:30–05:30 ET period when price broke out above $3.20, with turnover surging to over $1.5 million. This volume was accompanied by a price increase of 1.1%, showing a strong correlation between volume and price. A divergence between price and volume appeared at $3.19 when volume dipped despite a small price pullback, suggesting potential short-term caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 61.8% retracement level at $3.18 was tested three times during the session and held. The 38.2% level at $3.19 was also a point of resistance and support. Looking at the daily swing, the 61.8% retracement of the recent $3.14–$3.22 range is at $3.17, which coincides with the 50-period SMA and could be a critical area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on a breakout-based approach, targeting bullish momentum from consolidation. Using the $3.18–$3.19 support zone as a trigger, a long position is entered after the price closes above this level with a 15-minute candle showing a bullish engulfing pattern. Stop-loss is placed just below the 61.8% Fibonacci at $3.17, with a take-profit at $3.22–$3.23 (1.5–2% from entry). The strategy assumes that the breakout is confirmed by high volume and rising RSI, aligning with the recent market action.