Market Overview: Toncoin Gains Momentum Amid Rising Volatility

• Toncoin rose 4.6% over 24 hours, forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 3.340–3.383.
• Volume surged in late ET hours as price tested key resistance at 3.370–3.390.
• RSI entered overbought territory (73) following a strong break above 20-period MA.
• Price closed above 3.370 for the first time in 48 hours, signaling potential for further upside.

Toncoin (TONUSDT) opened at 3.327 on 2025-08-10 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.428 and a low of 3.291 before closing at 3.370 on 2025-08-11 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 5.11 million, with a notional turnover of $1.74 billion.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and held above a key 15-minute support at 3.340, forming a series of bullish engulfing patterns as the trend turned higher in the late ET session. A notable consolidation occurred between 3.365 and 3.383, where a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligned with a horizontal resistance line. A doji at 3.390–3.391 suggests short-term indecision ahead of 3.400, the next psychological level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early hours of 2025-08-11, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 200-period MA on daily data (not provided) would typically serve as a long-term support or resistance; however, the 50/100-day lines are likely in the 3.280–3.320 range, which the pair has now decisively moved above.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed above the signal line between 02:30 and 04:30 ET, indicating strengthening momentum. RSI reached 73, signaling overbought conditions for the first time in several sessions. However, volume and price action suggest this is more of a continuation than exhaustion pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply from 02:00 to 05:00 ET as price moved above the upper Bollinger Band. The 20-period band width increased from ~3.4% to ~5.6%, showing heightened activity. Price has since settled just inside the upper band, suggesting continuation potential.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 04:30–06:00 ET period, with over 600k in volume across two 15-minute bars. Notional turnover also increased, with a large block of $1.09M at 16:00 ET as price closed at 3.392. No notable price-turnover divergence is observed; volume confirmed the break above key resistance.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level at 3.370–3.380 aligned with recent resistance and was decisively taken out. A 78.6% extension of the recent bullish move suggests a potential target of 3.420–3.450. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the 3.290–3.370 move is now a potential area to watch for consolidation.

Price could extend higher in the next 24 hours, especially if it remains above 3.370. However, a pullback to 3.340–3.350 may test near-term bullish conviction. Investors should watch for a break of 3.390 and the emergence of a more bearish MACD divergence if volume wanes.