Market Overview for Toko Token/Tether (TKOUSDT)

Summary
• Price dropped sharply from $0.1258 to $0.1169 before rallying back to $0.124.
• Key support at $0.120–$0.121 and resistance at $0.124–$0.125 were tested.
• Strong volume spikes observed during both the decline and recovery phases.

Toko Token/Tether (TKOUSDT) opened at $0.1222 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1240 by the same time on 2025-11-09. The price reached a high of $0.1258 and a low of $0.1169 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded amounted to approximately 815,333.9 TKO, with a total turnover of $98,839.75. The price action reflects a volatile yet structured response to key support and resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

TKOUSDT exhibited a distinct bearish breakdown below the key support of $0.120 before a strong reversal occurred. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed near $0.120, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. A doji formed at $0.122, indicating indecision among traders. These patterns, combined with the price retesting the $0.124 level twice, highlight the psychological significance of the $0.120–$0.124 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains above the 20-period moving average but crosses below the 50-period line at key moments. This suggests a short-term bullish bias is waning. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period lines are in close proximity, with the 200-period acting as a long-term support. A cross above the 50-period line would strengthen the case for further upside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed into positive territory during the rally but has since flattened, signaling waning momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) during the upward push but has since receded, indicating a possible correction. RSI’s bounce from oversold levels below 30 suggests a strong bounce is likely, but overbought readings may delay further upside unless buyers are aggressive enough to push the price past $0.125.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the decline and subsequent rally, pushing the price outside the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. The price has since settled near the upper band again, indicating potential for a pullback toward the middle band. A retest of the lower band at $0.118 may offer another buying opportunity, while a sustained break above the upper band would signal a new trend phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the decline to $0.1169 and again during the rally toward $0.1258, confirming the significance of these price levels. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, suggesting strong conviction in both the bearish and bullish phases. A divergence between price and volume during the final hours of the 24-hour window suggests caution is warranted in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing low to high show the $0.120 (38.2%) and $0.124 (61.8%) levels acting as critical zones. The price has tested both levels, with the 61.8% retracement showing strong resistance. A move beyond $0.1258 would indicate a potential target at $0.1278 (161.8%).

Backtest Hypothesis

To set up this back-test precisely, I need a few quick clarifications:
1. Ticker(s) to test
• Would you like to run the strategy on a single symbol such as “SPY”, or on a list of specific stocks?
• If multiple stocks, please provide the tickers.
2. RSI parameters
• Default RSI period is 14 days. OK to use that, or do you want a different look-back?
3. Price series
• Use daily close prices (standard for RSI) unless you prefer open or another frequency.
4. Risk controls (optional)
• Any stop-loss, take-profit, or max-holding-days rules to add, or keep it simple with just the RSI entry/exit?
Once I have this information I’ll retrieve the RSI data, generate the trade signals (buy on cross above 70, sell on first cross below 70), and run the back-test from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-09.

The price may consolidate between $0.120 and $0.124 in the next 24 hours, depending on liquidity and market sentiment. A break above $0.125 would open the door for $0.127, but a pullback below $0.120 could reignite bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious and watch for volume confirmation on any new breakout.