Market Overview: Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) - Bullish Consolidation Amid Volatility

• Threshold/USDC surged from $0.0154 to a 24-hour high of $0.0159 before retracing to $0.01557 at 12:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish flag pattern near $0.01586–$0.01574, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
• RSI moved from overbought to neutral levels, while volume peaked at $0.01586 with 53,740.5 units traded.
• Volatility expanded as price broke above a key resistance at $0.0157 and retested it intraday.
• Total volume reached 500,164.4 units, with $755,398.1 in notional turnover during the 24-hour period.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 2, Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.0154 and surged to a high of $0.0159 before closing at $0.01557 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 500,164.4 units, with a notional turnover of $755,398.1. The pair exhibited a strong move up during the evening hours, forming a bullish continuation pattern before consolidating into a narrower range.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish impulse from $0.0154 to $0.0159 between 19:30 and 23:00 ET, forming a flag pattern. A key support level appears to be forming around $0.01564–$0.01574, where the price tested the upper edge of a consolidation range multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.01586–$0.01582 at 23:15 ET, which marked a short-term reversal and initiated a pullback. A doji candle at $0.01568–$0.01568 (05:00 ET) suggested indecision at the mid-range, potentially signaling a pivot point.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed above the 50-period SMA (SMA50) in the early hours of October 3, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remains above the 200-period SMA, indicating that TUSDC is in a medium-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged into overbought territory above 70 during the bullish impulse before retreating to neutral levels between 50 and 60. This suggests momentum is waning but remains positive.

MACD showed a bullish crossover at $0.01575–$0.01575 (04:45 ET), reinforcing the short-term strength. However, the histogram has been declining since 05:00 ET, indicating that momentum may be losing steam.

Volatile Range and Fibonacci Levels

Volatility expanded as TUSDC moved from $0.0154 to $0.0159 between 19:00 and 23:00 ET, with the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price retracted to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.01582 and then to the 61.8% level at $0.01574, where it consolidated for several hours. This suggests that $0.01574 is a key psychological level, which traders may target for further buying or short-term resistance.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically at $0.01586 with 53,740.5 units traded, suggesting strong accumulation or aggressive long entries. However, volume declined during the consolidation phase, indicating reduced conviction in the bullish move. Notional turnover peaked at $0.01586 at $824,084.8 and declined steadily thereafter, aligning with the bearish pullback. Price and turnover appear to be in alignment, supporting the idea that the current move may be a healthy correction rather than a bearish breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish impulse and consolidation at key Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout and retest approach. A long entry could be triggered on a close above $0.01586 with a stop loss below $0.01574. A short entry could be considered on a rejection at $0.01586, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and declining volume. This aligns with the identified support/resistance levels and key candlestick patterns observed in the 15-minute timeframe. Using a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, the target for the long would be $0.01595, and for the short, $0.01568, with exits based on trendline breaks or RSI divergence.