Market Overview: Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-07)

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) traded in a tight range for most of the day, breaking lower late in the session.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the 15:15–17:45 ET period as price dropped from 0.01579 to 0.01542.
• Final 15-minute candle closed at 0.01547 with low volume, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term downward move.
• RSI entered oversold territory at 32.4, signaling potential near-term reversal, while MACD showed bearish momentum.
• Total volume of 1,640,262.3 with a turnover of $25,183.65 indicates moderate liquidity but bearish confirmation of the recent move.

The Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) pair opened at 0.01582 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded as high as 0.01582 before declining steadily to a session low of 0.01487, closing at 0.01547 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 1,640,262.3 USDC, while notional turnover reached approximately $25,183.65 during the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish structure dominated by a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a descending channel with key resistance near 0.01579 and support at 0.01547. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 15:45 ET when the candle closed at 0.01542 after a wide-bodied red candle. A doji appeared at 11:45 ET (0.01549), signaling a pause in bearish momentum, while the final hour saw the price trading near the 0.01547 level with muted volume, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20 and 50-period) on the 15-minute chart have been trending downward, with price consistently below both. The 50-period MA at ~0.01555 currently acts as a key support level. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs all remain above the current price, indicating a broader bearish bias. The 50-period MA appears to be acting as a critical floor for near-term stability, especially given the recent volume contraction.

MACD & RSI

The RSI stands at 32.4, entering oversold territory, which could hint at a potential rebound. However, the MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, suggesting that while oversold conditions may trigger a bounce, the broader trend remains downward. The divergence between RSI and MACD implies that a reversal, if it occurs, may be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the lower band for much of the session, indicating increased volatility and a bearish bias. A contraction in the bands occurred between 13:45 and 14:00 ET, followed by a sharp drop below the lower band, signaling a potential continuation of the downward move. Current volatility levels suggest the price could either stabilize or continue to trend lower if the lower band breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:45–17:45 ET window when the price dropped from 0.01579 to 0.01542, confirming the bearish move. The largest single 15-minute candle (194,814.5 USDC) closed at 0.01535, marking a key short-term low. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, peaking during the same period. However, recent volume has diminished, indicating weakening bearish momentum and potential exhaustion in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent swing (0.01582 to 0.01487), key levels are positioned at 38.2% (~0.01545) and 61.8% (~0.01527). The current close at 0.01547 is near the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential area of support. If the price breaks below 0.01527, the next target could be 0.01507. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader downtrend remains a critical threshold to watch for reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a reversal breakout from the 38.2% Fibonacci level combined with an oversold RSI and a volume contraction. For example, a long entry could be triggered when the price closes above 0.01547 with increasing volume, RSI above 35, and a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., a morning star or a bullish engulfing). A stop-loss could be placed below the recent low at 0.01542, with a profit target at 0.01560. This hypothesis leverages the convergence of price structure, momentum, and volume to identify a high-probability short-term bounce in a broader bearish context.