Market Overview: Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-22

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) drifted lower over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• Price tested key support levels below 0.01275–0.01280 but showed limited buying interest.
• Volatility dipped in the overnight session, suggesting consolidation or bearish exhaustion.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.01315–0.01301, indicating bearish momentum.
• Turnover increased during the late-night to early-morning hours, aligning with price declines.

TUSDC opened at 0.01282 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and drifted to a high of 0.01326 before closing at 0.01272 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, down 0.81%. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,521,505.6, with a notional turnover of $19,896.22. The price action suggests a bearish tilt, with intraday bearish engulfing and rejection at higher levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours showed a bearish bias, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming on the candle from 2025-10-22 at 02:15 ET. This candle opened at 0.01266 and closed at 0.01261 after opening higher at 0.01276, suggesting a rejection of bullish momentum. A potential support level appears to be forming in the 0.01260–0.01270 range. On the 15-minute chart, price has oscillated within a narrowing range overnight, pointing to a potential reversal or continuation depending on volume and follow-through.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have remained in a bearish alignment for the last 10 hours, with price closing below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA appears to be a key resistance at ~0.01295, and the 200-period MA may act as a critical support level in the coming days. RSI has been in oversold territory for much of the day, with a reading of ~34 at the close, suggesting potential for a bounce. MACD has remained below zero, confirming bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have constricted significantly in the early morning hours, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown. The closing candle on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET closed near the lower band at ~0.01272, which could indicate a temporary oversold condition. However, given the lack of strong volume during this move, traders should remain cautious about a meaningful rebound.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night hours (02:00–04:00 ET) as the price declined from ~0.01301 to ~0.01261, indicating active selling pressure. Turnover also rose during this period, confirming the bearish move. The lack of volume in the overnight consolidation period (04:00–09:00 ET) suggests limited participation and weak conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of 0.01326 and the recent swing low of 0.01261, key levels to watch in the near term are:

• 38.2%: ~0.01298
• 61.8%: ~0.01285

Price is currently testing the 61.8% level, and a break below that would signal a possible move to the 0.01270–0.01260 support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern observed on the 02:15–02:30 ET candle, a backtesting strategy could be developed based on entries on confirmation of such patterns. A typical setup would involve entering a short position after the engulfing candle closes below the prior candle’s low, with a stop just above the engulfing candle’s high and a target at the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci levels. A backtest over the last 3 years (2022–2025) could determine the effectiveness of this approach on TUSDC or similar cross-asset pairs.